Iran, Nukes, Diplomacy and other options (catch all thread 2007-2010)

[h2harris]

The Wall Street Journal - September 22, 2008

EVERYONE NEEDS TO WORRY ABOUT IRAN
by Richard Holbrooke, R. James Woolsey, Dennis B. Ross and Mark D. Wallace

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122204266977561331.html

"We believe that Iran's desire for nuclear weapons is one of the most urgent issues facing America today, because even the most conservative estimates tell us that they could have nuclear weapons soon."

"A nuclear-armed Iran would likely destabilize an already dangerous region that includes Israel, Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan, India and Pakistan, and pose a direct threat to America's national security. For this reason, Iran's nuclear ambitions demand a response that will compel Iran's leaders to change their behavior and come to understand that they have more to lose than to gain by going nuclear."

"Tehran claims that it is enriching uranium only for peaceful energy uses. These claims exceed the boundaries of credibility and science."

[U]Counter-balancing and balancing all that needs to be do so, would it be interesting to have a discussion on policy and action?/U]

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 23 Sep 08: The US, Israel, the Arab States and a Nuclear Iran

The detailed 178-page brief at the above link can also be accessed in individual pdf files for its separate sections:

Part I: Iranian Nuclear Programs

Part II: Iranian Missile Programs and Missile Defense Options

Part III: Iranian CBRN Options

Part IV: Military Options for Dealing with Iranian Threat

Part V: Iranian Capabilities to Respond to Preventive Attack

Part VI: The Warfighting Implications of An Iranian Nuclear Force

Part VII: The Problem of International Response and Arab Attitudes

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 16 Oct 08: Iranian WMD: Capabilities, Developments, and Strategic Uncertainties

....Iran‟s progress towards a nuclear weapons capability has had additional major effects. Every state dealing with Iran must decide whether some form of accommodation is possible, and consider its relations with Iran in the context of dealing with a future nuclear power. While a state like Israel may focus on warfighting, other states – particularly Iran‟s neighbors -- must increasingly deal with an Iran which can use nuclear weapons as a tacit or overt threat to bring pressure upon them. Even the future prospect of an Iranian weapon, gives Iran added leverage in the “wars of intimidation” that shape much of the real-world behavior of nations in the region.

Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons capability also interacts with its growing capability for irregular or asymmetric warfare. It is one thing to deal with Iran‟s use of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) when Iran is a relatively weak conventional power. It is another thing to risk taking decisive action, or retaliating in force against Iran‟s use of irregular warfare, when this risks creating lasting tension with a future nuclear power – or the risk of escalation if Iran actually deploys a nuclear capability. Furthermore, Iran‟s ties to Syria, influence in Iraq, links to the Hezbollah, and relations with Hamas raise the specter that Iran not only can use proxies to help it fight irregular wars, but also to help it in some future covert delivery of nuclear weapons.....

[Jedburgh]

CH, 17 Dec 08: Iran: Breaking the Nuclear Deadlock

The dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme is deadlocked. Five years of negotiations, proposals, UN resolutions and sanctions have failed to achieve a breakthrough. As diplomacy struggles and Iran continues to advance its nuclear capabilities, the issue becomes ever more grave and pressing.

There is some encouragement for progress in 2009. Iran’s economic and political weaknesses could make it receptive to US president-elect Barack Obama’s willingness to consider new approaches.

This report examines the Iranian and regional context for decisions that the US and Europe will take on shaping their relations with Iran. It goes on to explore options for the nuclear negotiations and offers recommendations to policy-makers to break the deadlock.....

[AdamG]

Iran acknowledged Saturday that some personnel at the country's nuclear facilities were lured by promises of money to pass secrets to the West but insisted increased security and worker privileges have put a stop to the spying.

The stunning admission by Vice President Ali Akbar Salehi provides the clearest government confirmation that Iran has been fighting espionage at its nuclear facilities.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010...ar-facilities/

Reading music
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKb9XQ39-zc

[Jedburgh]

25 Oct 10, CEIP: Iran: A View From Moscow

Iran’s emergence as a rising power is straining its relations with Russia. While many outside observers assume the two countries enjoy a close relationship, in reality it is highly complex. Although Iran and Russia have strong economic and military ties, Moscow is increasingly wary of Tehran’s growing ambitions.

Offering a view from Moscow, this paper explores how an empowered Iran threatens Russia. Home to the world’s second-largest natural gas resources—behind only Russia—Iran can severely cut into the profits of Russia’s state controlled energy company, Gazprom, by selling more gas to Europe. And a nuclear Iran would significantly diminish Russia’s influence in the wider Caspian region that includes the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Iran’s relationship with Russia has evolved. While Moscow did not want to strengthen a potential regional rival, it was desperate in the past to save its crumbling defense industry and Tehran seemed to offer a large and willing market.

Still, the relationship is growing more contentious on both sides. After Iran failed to agree to a nuclear deal with the international community that was brokered by Moscow last year, it continued to use Russia as a foil to undercut U.S. policies. Meanwhile, Russia—as it resets relations with the United States—has backed economic sanctions against Tehran and supported a United Nations Security Council resolution blocking heavy weapons exports to Iran....

Complete 44 page paper at the link.