I do not think a COIN simulator is viable at the tactical level because a COIN simulation is inherently political. Many have already mentioned the obvious problems in modelling the complex relationships in a COIN environment. A fully simulated tactical COIN simulator would be simplistic at best, which is a problem with nearly all games which attempt to model any kind of political environment. I think this kind of simulation would be best utilitzed as a staff tool at battalion or higher. Using the model I suggested earlier, the S3 and S2 could take their traditional roles (Blue Force and OpFor, respectively), the S5 as the most influential civilian demographic in the AO, the S9 (if available) as any agencies in the AO, and the S4 possibly as other friendly forces in the AO (if any). Since there's likely to be multiple OpFor and civilian groups, people can be pulled from the S2 and S5 sections (or the other remaining sections) as necessary. All the while, the S6 can make sure the simulator is functioning properly since there'd be little need for any kind of moderator. The system wouldn't require anything more than someone knowledgeable in a common programming language (PHP, C++, etc) and access to the internet.
Further Note: All of this could be made available through a master site (even AKO), where the staffs can enter and play their respective scenarios, using a basic options menu common to any game to design the desired scenario. My inspirations for this idea were this game and this one. The first one uses PHP to model the classic Diplomacy board game (no moderator necessary) and hosts hundreds of simultaneous games; the second models the whole of the Star Wars universe; of course, that kind of scale is not necessary for COIN purposes. Both of these are free to the users.
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