I've bought quite a few put options in the last year, but most of them were only to hedge against losses in stocks that I own. Literature? I'd say read anything by Jack Bogle. Other than that, read Barron's and, time permitting, the Wall Street Journal. I think that the timeless advice of a balanced portfolio, matching your investments to your risk tolerance, and not overreacting are the only sane advice. The rest of it - models, timers, etc - are just gambling, in my opinion. I don't know of any literature on it, so I can't recommend any. But, I would say that if you're determined to try a model, your best bet is to search for options that are over or undervalued. Even experienced option traders have never seen this type of volatility and they're in uncharted territory right now. The playing field isn't level, but it's a little flatter, so long as you're not looking to cash in purely on arbitrage trades.