Quote Originally Posted by Eden View Post
Back in grad school I took a course on African history (before it was fashionable!) and the prof said that even reasonable changes to colonial boundaries, for whatever reason, would unleash chaos across the continent. In effect, he said there was an unwritten agreement among the former colonial powers, the Superpowers (there were two back then), and the African states themselves to maintain the colonial boundaries. Bottom line was that the only thing worse than the current dysfunctional borders would be an attempt to fix them.

I take it you disagree with that line of reasoning?
I disagree in that there is a natural process that forces change: it is called war in all its various forms. Where we have consistently gone wrong in cases like the Congo --or Somalia--was that we rushed to restore and maintain rather than sort out the underlying reasons for the conflict. That the African governments themselves held similar fears is true but hardly surprising.

In the case to the Congo/Zaire, that government was a Western creation. In the era of the Cold War with proxies in either side, your professor was correct. Better to avoid conflict or if unavoidable support conflict that ends in stalemate. I would class Angola and our support first to the FNLA and later UNITA as prime examples.

Don't get me wrong: I am not an advocate of border change as a solution to be imposed from the outside. The borders in the Middle East are truly screwed up; overtime they will adjust, Should we try to adjust them, we would indeed unleash chaos.

In the case of the Congo, some of this has been going on for decades. While I was there in 1994 Shaba province was renamed Katanga and the governor drove to the ceremony in Moise Tshmobe's old car (from his days as head of the Katangan Secession in 1960-63).

Since the 'end of the Cold War' of course, the old paradigm of strategic checkmate fell apart. We have however continued to approach long standing issues like the Congo or Somalia as if we were determined to maintain that paradigm--at least in respect to maintaining borders. I found Museveni's speech/transcript in the latest Mil Review to be quite good in getting at this tendency.

I also found this to be true in 1994-1996 when warning DC that Rwanda under the RPF saw a conquest of Zaire only as an exercise in logistics. A local UNHCR Director in Goma in late 1994 was appalled when I told him that unless the killer militias in the camps were disarmed he would see an RPA brigade marching past his office. Took 24 months but it happened. Instead he--the UNHCR guy and a hell of lot of others--saw that border as a barrier.

Where does this leave us though? I would suggest that in cases like the Congo the regional players will have to work it out. I see MONUC and its 17,000 troops as a testament to UN futility. Absent a mandate to engage in offensive operations and actually take charge, MONUC is part of the problem. ultimately I believe Rwanda will reaquire territory in the Congo based on ethnic ties as well as its own historical claims.

In the case of Somalia, I believe supporting a breakway Somaliland that shows it can function as a state is the right thing to do. Djibouti is another example. Support the governments that work and allow them to draw in those who wish to join them.

best

Tom