.....Almost every major aircraft development program is in so much trouble that the replacements are stuck in a morass of procurement and development problems, cost explosions, and rifts within the Department of Defense. Fifth-generation tactical aircraft are affected by significant delays and cost increases.
The F-22 has almost tripled in unit cost. Meanwhile, the planned procurement quantity has been reduced from 750 to 183. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter faces a similar fate, and may not be ready in time to replace aging legacy fighters, creating a ―fighter gap in the Air Force‘s and Navy‘s inventories. The strategic capabilities are not less affected by these problems. A new bomber is planned, as the previous B-2B program escalated in cost by a factor of at least 300 percent, and was reduced to roughly one fifth of its original force goal. Finally, a program to replace the almost 50-year old air refueling tanker is stuck in a political tug of war caused by the Air Force‘s mismanagement of the program. Meanwhile, maintenance costs to keep the legacy fleet operational are increasing rapidly.
There now are fewer program alternatives if any key program runs into trouble, failed methods of cost analysis are still in play without adequate cost-risk analysis or use of regression analysis.The pressure to ―sell‖ programs by understating cost and risk have all combined to push air modernization to the crisis point. Current plans for aircraft modernization are not affordable unless aircraft costs are sharply reduced, deliveries are delayed years longer than planned, or funding shifts to lower cost variants or upgrades of older types. The only alternative is a major increase in real defense spending.
This report examines how these problems affect the tactical, strategic, and enabling capabilities of US air power. It draws on recent government data and news reports to reveal the state of current strategic air power and identify the challenges the next administration will face for future force planning and budgeting......
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