Hamas in Gaza (merged thread)

[AmericanPride]

Wilf,

Why do you believe that the Palestinians do not and never will want peace?

Why did you label "survival" as a strategy, and not an end for strategy?

A historical side-note: you stated that an Egyptian nationalist had supported Hitler. So did Gandhi -- less for the Nazi military and Jewish policy, and more for Germany's war against Imperial Britain. I think Arab animosity should be read in the light of the colonialism narrative rather than in some unending ethnic hatred of Jews. The differences in ethnicity and religion, IMO, only serve to intensify the underlying conflict inherited from colonialism.

[Ken White]

...The differences in ethnicity and religion, IMO, only serve to intensify the underlying conflict inherited from colonialism.

you will find that the evils of colonialism get far more play in European hearth academia than they do in the streets of the ME (liberal guilt is a terrible thing to behold... ).

Residents of former colonial areas pay it lip service when it suits to reinforce their position politically or at the bargaining table but in casual conversation or even intense interchanges, drunk or sober (a surprising number drink theoretically forbidden alcohol) it is a non-issue to most.

[AmericanPride]

Residents of former colonial areas pay it lip service when it suits to reinforce their position politically or at the bargaining table but in casual conversation or even intense interchanges, drunk or sober (a surprising number drink theoretically forbidden alcohol) it is a non-issue to most.

I should have been more clear: I think the consequences of colonialism have shaped the various ME conflicts, and in many ways have contributed to their causes; though I agree with you that anti-colonialism is not at the top of anyone's agenda.

[Ken White]

boundaries drawn by the former colonial overseers and their problematic locations. The fact that the NKVD, the MVD and the KGB put in a lot of effort from the old Agitprop days of the 1920s until the breakup of the USSR stirring up trouble along those fault lines has not helped -- nor has the fact that today's FSB is quietly fanning the flames along them been a big asset...

The actions of all those Chekists in tilting education, particularly in the west, over the years has also had its effect as natives of the Region pursued higher education and were exposed to anti-colonial rants and has helped keep a few of them convinced nothing wrong is their fault.

[Entropy]

...but what do you suggest? Everyone assumes it's up to Israel to make peace, with people who do not want peace. All Israel's enemies want is Israel's destruction.

What Rex said is a good starting point. What I would suggest is as a general strategy is to consider the effects of your actions and avoid those that are likely to strengthen the radical Islamist elements and marginalize the moderate elements you can deal with. That will probably mean there will be times when not responding militarily to provocation will be necessary. It's also going to require a little more forethought before military action is undertaken with particular attention to achievable ends. This latest operation, so far, seems a good example mismatching means to ends. The goals are:

Dealing Hamas a forceful blow, fundamentally changing the situation in Gaza, and bringing the rocket attacks against Israeli citizens to a complete halt.

Pretty vague except the last one. Even the press is commenting on this:

Beyond delivering Hamas a deep blow and protecting border communities, the assault's broader objectives remained cloudy. Israeli President Shimon Peres acknowledged the challenge, saying the operation was unavoidable but more difficult than many people anticipated.

Unavoidable? More difficult than anticipated? What have Israeli decisionmakers been drinking - I want some.

And there's more:

Operation Cast Lead is entering the problematic phase of any war: The first, surprise strike is over, the operational successes are less impressive, and the enemy is beginning to rally. Israel would want to continue hurting Hamas, but the goals readied before the operation are running out and the magical aerial solutions that do not involve loss of soldiers are coming to an end.

This is the stage when the government must decide whether to send ground troops into the Gaza Strip and begin face-to-face combat with Hamas or make do with threats, seek a cease-fire that will bear the imprint of the bombardments of the first days and announce that the goal had been attained and threaten that if rocket-fire from Gaza continues the next strike will be more painful.

This is worth reading too.

Israel's credibility is on the line again. It began an operation with lofty goals and subsequently found that meeting those goals is probably going to cost more that it's willing to pay. Even if Israel bloodies Hamas, it's all downside if it can't stop the rocket attacks - which so far, it can't. Not only will it have failed in its once clear objective, but Hamas will be strengthened politically and Fateh, Egypt (who's paying a big price as it is) and anyone who's not an Islamist is weakened. Syria, who's been interested in striking a deal with the US and Israel for a while now, isn't so interested anymore. What benefit is any of this to Israel? I can't see any benefit at all.

[jmm99]

From Ha'aretz here.

Last update - 05:12 01/01/2009
IDF recommends major, but brief Gaza ground offensive
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents and News Agencies
....
The Israel Defense Forces recommended a major, but relatively short-term, ground offensive in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, as military preparations continued on the border. The army was given the green light to forge ahead with Operation Cast Lead, which enters its sixth day Thursday. ...

Wilf - Is there anything in Gaza that could even slow down Israeli armor ? I assume we are not dealing with anything remotely close to Hez in Leb.

[William F. Owen]

From Ha'aretz here.



Wilf - Is there anything in Gaza that could even slow down Israeli armor ? I assume we are not dealing with anything remotely close to Hez in Leb.

Yes. They have some AT-3 Saggers which they had used during the cease fire, at least twice, plus they have suicide bombers and RPGs.

Israel's credibility is on the line again. It began an operation with lofty goals and subsequently found that meeting those goals is probably going to cost more that it's willing to pay. Even if Israel bloodies Hamas, it's all downside if it can't stop the rocket attacks - which so far, it can't. Not only will it have failed in its once clear objective, but Hamas will be strengthened politically and Fateh, Egypt (who's paying a big price as it is) and anyone who's not an Islamist is weakened. Syria, who's been interested in striking a deal with the US and Israel for a while now, isn't so interested anymore. What benefit is any of this to Israel? I can't see any benefit at all.

Credibility on the line? Credibility with who? A member of the US Armed Forces? The International community? Israelis care very little about either. Frankly an American lecturing Israel about military affairs or international strategy would be considered grotesque in the extreme.

Sorry Entropy, but you are looking at this whole thing like an American or European. If you struggle to understand Arabs, you'll never understand their closest psychological cousins, the Israelis.

You are snap shooting what you are seeing on TV as something that started 5-10 days ago. It did not. It goes back to well before 2006. The result may not be even remotely clear for another 5-10 years, and the success marker/ benefit is the continued existence of the state of Israel within the 1948 cease fire line. What other success is there?

...and if you really think Syria is interested in a deal, you have very different tea leaves to the ones I read, and if they really want a deal, there will be pause for appearance and then back to business as normal.

Wilf,
Why do you believe that the Palestinians do not and never will want peace?

The average Palestinian, working for my parents in law, wants peace. He just wants what most normal folks want. I see Palestinians everyday, an they are mostly decent folk.

However, there is a very large body of Palestinian "opinion formers," who are deeply committed to the destruction of Israel and see it as their only form of personal/social credibility. Mix in Iran and their proxy's and it's an impossible mix. I am very committed to a two/three state solution, but it will not bring peace. It just re-shapes the problem into an different form.

Why did you label "survival" as a strategy, and not an end for strategy?

How long have you got. When has anyone ever let Jews be, and left them alone to live in peace. Getting the state was one thing. Keeping the state is everything.

A historical side-note: you stated that an Egyptian nationalist had supported Hitler. So did Gandhi -- less for the Nazi military and Jewish policy, and more for Germany's war against Imperial Britain. I think Arab animosity should be read in the light of the colonialism narrative rather than in some unending ethnic hatred of Jews. The differences in ethnicity and religion, IMO, only serve to intensify the underlying conflict inherited from colonialism.

... except the Arabs do have an unending hatred of Jews. Yes, they call Jews "people of the book," but they hate Jews for the reasons Christians do. Look at the Hebron Massacres of 1929, where they butchered Jews who had lived there since records began. Very few Arab nations have not conducted wide spread extra-judicial killings of Jews, in much the same way as Americans used to lynch Afro-americans. I met a Moroccan the other day who lost 50 members of his family during the 1948 and 1956 anti-Jewish riots.

To add to all this, Hitler is a figure widely revered in extremist Arab organisations. Look at Hezbollah's salute!

[AmericanPride]

However, there is a very large body of Palestinian "opinion formers," who are deeply committed to the destruction of Israel and see it as their only form of personal/social credibility. Mix in Iran and their proxy's and it's an impossible mix. I am very committed to a two/three state solution, but it will not bring peace. It just re-shapes the problem into an different form.

How does Israel go about "[reshaping] the problem" so that the "very large body of Palestinian opinion formers" have something other than the destruction of Israel to demonstrate/illustrate their credibility?

[William F. Owen]

How does Israel go about "[reshaping] the problem" so that the "very large body of Palestinian opinion formers" have something other than the destruction of Israel to demonstrate/illustrate their credibility?

By making the destruction of Israel less and less likely/plausible and thus denying them credibility. It may take generations. How you really convince a very large group of people that Jews should be able to have a peaceful state in the Middle-East I don't really know, and the vast majority of Israelis don't care what these people think anyway.

[tranquill]

Israeli dissident analytic writes that IDF op in Gaza is already stuck, Israelis are bogged down, and basically that's the end of the war: http://samsonblinded.org/news/israel...-momentum-5424

[William F. Owen]

Israeli dissident analytic writes that IDF op in Gaza is already stuck, Israelis are bogged down, and basically that's the end of the war: http://samsonblinded.org/news/israel...-momentum-5424

...errr from Samson Blinded? Ask Rex about those guys.
Try a reputable Israeli source like Ynet or Ha'Aretz (Haaretz)

[Rex Brynen]

...errr from Samson Blinded? Ask Rex about those guys.
Try a reputable Israeli source like Ynet or Ha'Aretz (Haaretz)

You beat me to it, Wilf!

[Entropy]

Credibility on the line? Credibility with who? A member of the US Armed Forces? The International community? Israelis care very little about either. Frankly an American lecturing Israel about military affairs or international strategy would be considered grotesque in the extreme.

Sorry Entropy, but you are looking at this whole thing like an American or European. If you struggle to understand Arabs, you'll never understand their closest psychological cousins, the Israelis.

You are snap shooting what you are seeing on TV as something that started 5-10 days ago. It did not. It goes back to well before 2006. The result may not be even remotely clear for another 5-10 years, and the success marker/ benefit is the continued existence of the state of Israel within the 1948 cease fire line. What other success is there?

...and if you really think Syria is interested in a deal, you have very different tea leaves to the ones I read, and if they really want a deal, there will be pause for appearance and then back to business as normal.

The "credibility" I'm talking about is the ability for Israel to do what it says it will do - especially militarily. This "credibility" deters enemies but more importantly than that, promotes the welfare of your people. The real credibility is in the eyes of Israelis. If you don't think the credibility of meeting one's own military objectives is important, then I don't know what to tell you.

I'm not so dumb as to be completely ignorant of the fact that there is more than one way to destroy a state, not least Israel. The focus is always on the external threats, but for Israel those aren't what they used to be. More dangerous is the demographic threat I alluded to earlier - not only disparities in birth rates, but the threat of key Israeli demographics throwing in the towel and emigrating. There are already some indications this might be taking place. What do you think will happen when the Israeli military can't keep its security promises? You seem to believe Israeli's, on the whole, are prepared for the kind of endless survival conflict you apparently believe is inevitable. We shall see.

Additionally, credibility with the rest of the world isn't immaterial. Israel needs allies.

Finally, please explain how it's "grotesque" to question the design and purpose of this latest Gaza operation? What about all the threads on 2006 - would they be considered "grotesque in the extreme?" Last I checked, the Gaza operation would be considered a legitimate topic here. And it's not even me - your own press are asking the same questions about the vague varying goals of this operation and your own leadership's public statements are completely inconsistent.

Wilf, you should not mistake me for an Arabist or one who wishes Israel ill, wants an end to US support, etc. I don't have a dog in this fight. But I'm an analyst by nature and by trade. Stating "existence of the Israeli state" as a self-evident justification for virtually any strategic, operational or tactical decision Israel makes, which is what most of your responses boil down to, is not particularly enlightening. Neither is the subtext of "you're not Israeli therefore you don't understand" which also permeates your responses. To me, this comes across as a big paternalistic STFU, not to mention defensive. Message received. I'm interested in debate, but not this kind of debate.

Happy New Year. I, for one, hope Israel and the Jewish people are able to find some peace this year.

[davidbfpo]

This website can be subscribed too, or visited and they are issuing regular bulletins on IDF action: http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/site/home/default.asp and this is the latest newsletter: http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/mal...hamas_e022.htm

The website is not an official government site, but clearly is well connected. Makes an interesting read and subject matter can be wider than the normal MSN.

davidbfpo

[Rex Brynen]

Haaretz, 02/01/2009

ANALYSIS / IDF is sending Hamas a message: now it's personal

By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondent

...

Almost a week into the war it now seems clear that Israel missed a golden opportunity in the first or second day to end the operation as a reprisal action only. The government says it is giving the IDF a chance to achieve the maximum, but in reality the air strikes were to have given the government time to come up with an exit strategy. That did not happen. As a result, Hamas is rallying somewhat while Israel is sliding toward a a ground operation that holds many risks.

The battle is being conducted in the shadow of a looming, election-eve political crisis, with tensions especially high between Livni and Labor Party chairman and Defense Minister Ehud Barak. The latter gained points early in the operation but in the past two days his mood seems to have soured, following media criticism after it was leaked that he was willing to consider a cease-fire before a ground offensive.

[William F. Owen]

The real credibility is in the eyes of Israelis. If you don't think the credibility of meeting one's own military objectives is important, then I don't know what to tell you.

Concur, and right now th IDF is credible. I was having dinner with a woman from the extreme left the other night, and even she is behind the Gaza operation. - and my wife is far left wing, and see's no other way.

More dangerous is the demographic threat I alluded to earlier - not only disparities in birth rates, but the threat of key Israeli demographics throwing in the towel and emigrating. There are already some indications this might be taking place. What do you think will happen when the Israeli military can't keep its security promises?

Within the state, (not the occupied territories) there are about 1 million Arabs living amongst 5.5-6 million Jews. No demographic threat there. The Haredi are breeding like rabbits - and as some don't pull their weight, that could be a problem. There are about 750,000 Israeli passport holders living or working outside Israel at anyone time. Israel's population is growing, not declining - at least according to my sources. We got 7,000 French folk, in just last 2 years.

Finally, please explain how it's "grotesque" to question the design and purpose of this latest Gaza operation? What about all the threads on 2006 - would they be considered "grotesque in the extreme?"

The Grotesque (and I apologise for the use of that word) aspect is what I took to be the implied suggestion that Israeli strategic thinking is somehow inferior to US. It clearly isn't.

I don't have a dog in this fight.

- and nor do 90% of the people criticising Israel, especially when they take selective and vastly hypocritical positions on Israeli military action, but I accept your point.

But I'm an analyst by nature and by trade. Stating "existence of the Israeli state" as a self-evident justification for virtually any strategic, operational or tactical decision Israel makes, which is what most of your responses boil down to, is not particularly enlightening.

Well, then forgive me, because I'm not sure I can explain it any more simply. Having a nation and keeping it, is what the conflict is about. It's about land, people and nation. It's not a "4GW" war of ideas. It never has been.

I'm interested in debate, but not this kind of debate.

Apologise for that, but I have dogs in this fight. I am prone, as are you all, to Clausewitz's trinity of enmity, hatred and violence. As Rex will tell you, I normally stay away from discussions on Israel on these boards, but sometimes, you got to jump in. - and enough Israelis read this board and know who I am so rude not to!

Happy New Year. I, for one, hope Israel and the Jewish people are able to find some peace this year.

They won't, but thanks, and DASH! - back at you in Hebrew. I would add, as I'm sure you would that the Palestinians also get some light at the end of tunnel. The problem is that Hamas switched that light off.

[Jedburgh]

SSI, 23 Dec 08: Hamas and Israel: Conflicting Strategies of Group-Based Politics

This monograph considers the changing fortunes of the Palestinian movement, HAMAS, and the recent outcomes of Israeli strategies aimed against this group and Palestinian nationalism external to the Fatah faction of the Palestinian Authority. The example of HAMAS challenges much of the current wisdom on “insurgencies” and their containment.

As the author, Dr. Sherifa Zuhur, demonstrates, efforts have been made to separate HAMAS from its popular support and network of social and charitable organizations. These have not been effective in destroying the organization, nor in eradicating the will to resist among a fairly large segment of the Palestinian population.

It is important to consider this Islamist movement in the context of a region-wide phenomenon of similar movements with local goals, which can be persuaded to relinquish violence, or which could move in the opposite direction, becoming more violent. Certainly an orientation to HAMAS and its base must be factored into new and more practical and effective approaches to peacemaking.

At the same time, HAMAS offers a fascinating instance of the dynamics of strategic reactions, and the modification of Israeli impulses towards aggressive deterrence, as well as evolution in the Islamist movements’ planning and operations. As well, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict bears similarities to a long-standing civil conflict, even as it has sparked inter-Palestinian hostilities in its most recent phase.

The need for informed and critical discussion of the future of Islamism in the region continues today. We offer this monograph to those who wish to consider this particular aspect of the Palestinian-Israeli-Arab conflict.

Complete 107-page paper at the link.

[Entropy]

It's been seen before of course, but this Danger Room piece on cell phone use and text message is pretty interesting:

Nobody likes getting cell phone messages from strange callers. Especially not when the callers say they're about to level your house.

But residents of Gaza say those are exactly the kind of messages they're getting from the Israel Defense Forces.

According to Ha'Aretz, "Palestinians reported that in some cases, the caller leaves a message on their voice mail warning that the IDF will bomb any house where weapons are rockets are found and the owners of the houses will be the ones to suffer the consequences."

[jmm99]

Two articles from Ha'Aretz, here and here.

Last update - 22:24 03/01/2009
Israel launches ground operation in Gaza Strip
By Amos Harel, Yoav Stern and Yanir Yagana, Haaretz Correspondents, and News Agencies

Israel entered the second week of its offensive against rockets from Hamas-ruled Gaza on Saturday evening by launching a much-expected ground operation into the coastal strip.

Shortly after the ground operation began, a heavy exchange of fire was reported between Israeli troops and Hamas militants inside the Gaza Strip.

"The objective is to destroy the Hamas terror infrastructure in the area of operations," said Israel Defense Forces Major Avital Leibovitch, a military spokeswoman, confirming that incursions were under way. "We are going to take some of the launch areas used by Hamas." .....

and

Last update - 22:23 03/01/2009
Barak: Gaza invasion won't be short, and it won't be easy
By Haaretz Service

Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Saturday that Israel's campaign against
Islamic Hamas militants in Gaza will not be short, nor will it be easy.
....
Addressing the nation in a special televised press conference following the launch of the ground invasion, Barak said that Israel was not eager to wage war, but could not abandon its citizens, residents of the south, who have been victimized by Hamas rockets.

"The campaign won't be easy and it won't be short," he said, emphasizing that the operation entails the risking of Israeli lives. "I know well the dangers that come with an offensive, and what the heavy price will be."

"I don't want to fool anyone. The residents of southern Israel will also undergo some tough times," Barak continued.

The defense minister also addressed the possibility of an escalation in violence in northern Israel, along the border with Lebanon. "We hope that the northern front will remain calm, but we are prepared for any possibility," he said.

[davidoff]

I have been watching some of the newscasts from english.aljazeera.net because of the live coverage and their dedicated coverage. While they do focus on the palestinian side they also have interviewed Israeli(civilian and military) sources as well as airing any Israeli press conferences. Any comments out there as to their credibility or suggestions of other news sites to supplement my understanding?