Good summations. Some minor points of quibbleism...
In theory if somewhat wrongly (it isn't their job but they sort of do it by default), major problem there is that the CinCs rotate every 2-3 years due to our flawed personnel system so there's a strong possibility of a loss of continuity there. Let's face it, we're on a two to four year cycle where we shuffle massive egos into positions of power.Originally Posted by Surferbeetle
I agree but since the 80s, we've been on on massive ideological differences and abrupt major shifts. I'm not sure we can get back to steady professionals who stay long enough to effect policies, not in the near future anyway. I suspect it will take a major shock to the US system to cause that to happen. We haven't really had on since 1941-2 so we're probably overdue...Long term policy can be carried out by professionals and perhaps it's time to get back to that approach...True.2. Free markets are a predictive indicator of the interests and efforts of populations.Agree however whether we have enough sense to do that is problematical. We'll see what the new CinC Cent comes up withIn addition to noting that we need an integrated plan which takes into account the countries which surround Afghanistan, I am going to take this opportunity to beat my agricultural and road infrastructure drum again... I am looking forward to seeing and thinking about GEN P's solution, it's my observation that he is an unconventional thinker.Heh. Thought I'd get you with that one...7. Metrics!You know where I stand on this one my friend, and it is firmly in the metrics corner. I earn a living in that corner ... We need to do a much better job with metrics in the Army, and stop being so stovepiped as well.
Seriously though, I fully appreciate the need for numbers in engineering, in risk management and indeed in a great many things -- even in things military. My concern, however is great and is two fold -- first and foremost, the Army severely misuses 'metrics' to produce a smokescreen of 'empirical data' and 'objective assessments.' They really need to quit that and, as you say do a better job. However, that leads to the second significant problem with metrics -- many military activities flat do not lend themselves to metrics. Few combat actions do and, in COIN operations, since people are involved, particularly people that we don't understand all that well, metrics can be very misleading. That problem is compounded by the fact that some will insist on using metrics for decision making purposes even though their metrics are flagrantly inappropriate or incorrect.
Metrics have uses but in combat, COIN and general military use -- particularly if flexible, volatile inconsistent humans are involved -- they should be used very sparingly and extremely cautiously. They can send a very incorrect message...Not being a smart ass but define 'participants.' Then determine which are willing, forced, happy to be there, not so happy and so forth. That may truly be, militarily, in the too hard arena.10. Mr. Mill's last point certainly is a tough one and speaks to the importance of Unity of Command...How do we craft a strategy which motivates enough of the participants to accomplish it?Anyone who truly thinks this world is unipolar is not thinking clearly.I am currently moving through the section on in my 2nd Edition of Mary Fulbrook's 'A Concise History of Germany' and there are some ugly parallels to our supposedly unipolar world.Past time I'd say -- but I see no evidence yet that anyone is doing that. Hard to say what the next few months will bring but unless they bring a clarity of vision and reasonable, realistic expectations, I foresee some disappointments. Big ones..Many of us in the west may not want to see religion as an issue but our opponents have been able to frame it and sell it as a religious issue. Perhaps it's time to get realistic and see what is possible.
Bookmarks