Hamas in Gaza (merged thread)

[bourbon]

Rex has it pretty on the nail in my opinion. I would only add that Iran has strategic interest in the West Bank, as key terrain in it's stated intent to "remove the Jews/Israel/Zionists from the book of history." In terms of that game, they will do whatever it takes to exert influence on Hamas, and/or create a proxy they can control.

...which is what makes the recent unpleasantness in Gaza a bit of side show, in Geo-strategic terms.

Wilf,

Who in the Iranian leadership structure has stated its intent as removing the Jews/Israel/Zionists from the book of history, and what power do they have? Iran knows they would see nuclear annihilation if they directly attacked Israel, not to mention lose all their hard won imperial gains.

Understandably Israel views any threat as a threat to its very existence. That said, it is as you say, far more complex on the local and regional level. Is the threat really of Iran “removing the Jews/Israel/Zionists from the book of history”; or rather is the threat that Iran challenges Israel’s geo-strategic position as the top regional power, with Israel viewing that position as vital to its existence?

[William F. Owen]

Who in the Iranian leadership structure has stated its intent as removing the Jews/Israel/Zionists from the book of history, and what power do they have? Iran knows they would see nuclear annihilation if they directly attacked Israel, not to mention lose all their hard won imperial gains.

I think Ahmadinejad comment is well known = بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود
I don't speak Farsi, but I have a few friends that do. Either way, it's not "live in Peace"

Understandably Israel views any threat as a threat to its very existence. That said, it is as you say, far more complex on the local and regional level. Is the threat really of Iran “removing the Jews/Israel/Zionists from the book of history”; or rather is the threat that Iran challenges Israel’s geo-strategic position as the top regional power, with Israel viewing that position as vital to its existence?

Does it matter? Israel's territorial security is founded making it either impossible or far too costly to attempt any form of military action (conventional and unconventional) against it. That hasn't altered since 1948. It's based on the "strongest tribe" principle, so recently rediscovered by the US. This had nothing to do with garnering economic or social influence. It is entirely a security necessity.

Iran has a program of generating, co-opting and developing proxy forces in the territories surrounding Israel. I don't think anyone disputes that. Why? Who knows.

[Rex Brynen]

An excellent account of the complex Israeli diplomacy surrounding the military campaign in Gaza:


Haaretz - 15:00 23/01/2009

Israel's multi-faceted Gaza cease-fire

By Aluf Benn

The political goals of Operation Cast Lead were not formulated until a few days after the fighting in Gaza began. Heading the list was a "stable cease-fire," centering around an effort to prevent arms smuggling into the Strip. The logic was that the Israel Defense Forces operation would damage Hamas' military capabilities, and that putting an end to the arms buildup would prevent renewed rocket fire into Israel. Senior policy-makers, whose decisions were instrumental in shaping the war in Gaza, say Israel succeeded in placing the smuggling issue on the international agenda after years in which it has been shunted to the sidelines. Now Israel has secured a commitment from the United States, Europe and Egypt to act against an arms buildup in Gaza.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak sought an "arrangement" via Egyptian mediation, which would be more stable than the previous tahadiyeh (cease-fire) agreement with Hamas. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni opposed a deal that would legitimize Hamas and proposed ending the operation with an act of "deterrence": a unilateral cease-fire that would allow Israel to resort to force again if hostilities from Gaza were renewed. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was against a settlement with Hamas - even one achieved by indirect means - but strove to reach an understanding with the international community.

[Rex Brynen]

Explosives haul missing in Gaza

BBC, 17 February 2009

Israeli aircraft dropped hundreds of tons of explosives on Gaza, not all of which exploded

A large stockpile of unexploded weapons has disappeared in Gaza, before United Nations experts were able to dispose of it safely, the BBC has learned.

Israel has accused Hamas of taking the stockpile, which was under Hamas guard....

Two weeks ago, on 2 February, the UN team was given access to a storage site in Gaza City where more than 7,000kg of explosives was being housed.

UXO have long been an important source of explosives for groups in Gaza (usually landmines from 1948-67, although in some cases even WWII and WWI stock). I imagine the "7,000 kg" refers to the gross weight of the UXO, not the amount of usable/extractable explosives.