To reiterate CavGuy's comments, it's is extremely difficult to model real world behavior in a computer program, video game, or wargaming application. Sec Gates warned, "No one should ever neglect the psychological, cultural, political, and human dimensions of warfare. War is inevitably tragic, inefficient, and uncertain, and it is important to be skeptical of systems analyses, computer models, game theories, or doctrines that suggest otherwise. We should look askance at idealistic, triumphalist, or ethnocentric notions of future conflict that aspire to transcend the immutable principles and ugly realities of war, that imagine it is possible to cow, shock, or awe an enemy into submission, instead of tracking enemies down hilltop by hilltop, house by house, block by bloody block."

This warning should not suggest that it is not an achievable goal to develop an IW wargaming. It is simply a caution to let you know that it is not easy.

As I posted earlier, there a numerous smart PH-D level operational research and social scientist working on this same topic. They temper there efforts with Sec Gates warning, and they continually ask advice from guys in the field who have been doing this for a while.

From what I've observed, there are two methodologies that they are testing to see if they can wargame IW. Below are a brief description and links to further research.

Take some time to research these theories and see if they help. Again, good luck.

1. Theory of Planned Behavior.

Reasoned Action suggests that a person's behavior is determined by his/her intention to perform the behavior and that this intention is, in turn, a function of his/her attitude toward the behavior and his/her subjective norm. The best predictor of behavior is intention. Intention is the cognitive representation of a person's readiness to perform a given behavior, and it is considered to be the immediate antecedent of behavior. This intention is determined by three things: their attitude toward the specific behavior, their subjective norms and their
perceived behavioral control. The theory of planned behavior holds that only specific attitudes toward the behavior in question can be expected to predict that behavior. In addition to measuring attitudes toward the behavior, we also need to measure people's subjective norms -their beliefs about how people they care about will view the behavior in question. To predict someone's intentions, knowing these beliefs can be as important as knowing the person's attitudes. Finally, perceived behavioral control influences intentions. Perceived behavioral control refers to people's perceptions of their ability to perform a given behavior...(Ajzen & Fishbein, 1980)

2. Expected Value-Rational ChoiceTheory

Rational choice theory, also known as rational action theory, is a framework for understanding and often formally modeling social and economic behavior. It is the dominant theoretical paradigm in microeconomics. It is also central to modern political science and is used by scholars in other disciplines such as sociology and philosophy.

The 'rationality' described by rational choice theory is different from the colloquial and most philosophical uses of rationality. Although models of rational choice are diverse, all assume individuals choose the best action according to stable preference functions and constraints facing them. Most models have additional assumptions. Proponents of rational choice models do not claim that a model's assumptions are a full description of reality, only that good models can aid reasoning and provide help in formulating falsifiable hypotheses, whether intuitive or not. Successful hypotheses are those that survive empirical tests.

v/r

Mike