Quote Originally Posted by Cavguy View Post
Both theories are valid, but fall victim to "Black Swans" pretty easily, but that doesn't disqualify their utility.

However, have played a lot of strategy games in the past, especially ones like the "Civilization" series and derivatives therof (space conquest, etc). Almost all feature a negotiation/alliance model for trade and security. However, I have yet to find one that looks like real-world relations for war decisions, even though most are based in rational choice theory. People aren't that mathematical/logical in the real world, and coding of the social/environmental/internal political constraints seems to be the missing factor - but the hardest to quantify.
True dat. Neil's experiences and COIN efforts in Anbar Province would not translate to success in Diyala. Conversely, my approach to Diyala would not have translated to Anbar. Each province has a unique "conflict eco-system" (Kilcullen) or social fabric.

So, I'm a little skeptical on the ability for the M&S community to develop an application that FORECAST behavior.

However, these programs y'all are working on may help to develop training tools. Back in the day, we used to head to CCTT and UCOFT to practice tank gunnery and maneuver in a 3D environment. While it was not as realistic as the OIF Thunder Runs, it served a purpose of helping to training. I found some utility in taking my platoon there.

Simarly, I am optimistic that someone will develop a useful wargaming or RPG to serve as a training tool for the next level of company grade officers and young soldiers/NCOs to practice PRIOR to experiencing the blunt force trauma of on the job training.

v/r

Mike