Supply routes to Afghanistan

[davidbfpo]

A long time ago I referred to some West European nations using a route via Iran, which was mentioned during the diplomacy over Iran's nuclear weapons programme and UN sanctions - alas reference not retained. The article indicated use of the Iranian route influenced the stance taken by some West European nations. I would suggest France, Germany and Italy are possible users of this route. IIRC there is a railway line to an Iranian city near Herat and this can link back to Turkey, or maybe Gulf ports?

Using other routes via Russia etc are fine in principle, but have immense problems and will investment be needed?

This aspect of the campaign in Afghanistan will continue to appear.

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

David:

The late Army Transportation Corp Lt. Colonel George Lowrey, USA, Ret., Deceased, of WW II era Lt. Colonelcy (his family owned heavy industry business in Birmingham, Alabama, he was only in the Army during WW II) an older but very good friend of mine...built the Iranian railroad still in use in Iran.

The Iranian RR was built in reaction to:

- Removal of the prior Shah, who was pro-Nazi [the ex-Shah had started a process to "let" German forces come into northern Iran and a RR was needed by the allies pdq to move troops and material as a blocking reaction;
- USSR movement of troops into northern parts of Iran against understanding with the Allies [this was attempted during and especially toward the end of WW II by USSR, to move into and "take" w/puppet government Soviets attempted to set up in N. Iran;
- To create a better transporation route for escaping Jews from Europe (this was a backdoor escape route from Nazi extermination of Jews)
- And to move supplies up into and for Russia to use against the Nazis.

In the 1960s when I was a young USAF Lieutenant out of US Embassy in Karachi, I made numerous flying visits to coordinate matters in Tehran...and the WW II era built railroad was still the backbone of the then entire (not then very vast, not sure size/status of Iranian RR system today) Iranian RR line(s) as of the mid-1960s.

Background info of course.

[CloseDanger]

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...show_article=1

It seems a squeeze from Russia is inevtible.
Appearantly the Kremlin has applied pressure against Kyrgyzstan for allowing us to base there. Kremlin states that US does not protect it's allies (Georgia) and Kyrgyzstan will remain Russias neighbor to the south. "The US will leave you be we are here to stay"

Russia prefers to be dealt with directly by the US in "Their sphere of Influence".

It goes without saying that shakey Logistics through Pakistan and the inability to airlift is a very uncomfortable position for our troops to be in.

Big work must be put into this right away. Logistics is the baseline which shall determine how Afghanistan works for us.

If you cannot supply the troops, they may not stay there.

[jmm99]

Yesterday's AP analysis is here.

Analysis: Kyrgyz base a Kremlin test for Obama
Analysis: Kremlin testing Obama administration in dispute over key Central Asian base
DOUGLAS BIRCH
AP News
Feb 04, 2009 12:34 EST

The Kremlin's message to President Barack Obama is clear: if the U.S. wants Central Asian help in its war against the Taliban, it must deal first with Russia.

A $2 billion aid pledge from Russia appears to be behind Kyrgyzstan's announcement that it will close a U.S. air base that has played a key role in American military operations in Afghanistan......

It seems we lost the auction.

[George L. Singleton]

David's recent post that under the MOU we have six months to vacate is correct.

Some of the recurring missions in and out of Kyrgyzstan are being flown by the 908th USAF Reserve Wing out of Maxwell AFB, Alabama. One of those pilots spoke to our Military Officers Association of America chapter monthly dinner meeting not too long ago, talk included excellent slides.

Pakistan desperately needs the revenue from use of movement of supplies and material through that nation. I like the posting of 50-odd militants killed by Pak attack choppers. We must see more of that, but what the Pakistani military hasn't been able to effectively do is put enmass divisions in place and keep them there instead of playing psychological games about India and other phoney threats.

Cheers.

[Ron Humphrey]

Pakistan desperately needs the revenue from use of movement of supplies and material through that nation. I like the posting of 50-odd militants killed by Pak attack choppers. We must see more of that, but what the Pakistani military hasn't been able to effectively do is put enmass divisions in place and keep them there instead of playing psychological games about India and other phoney threats.

Cheers.

While this is understandable and especially that last part, one would think that at some point PAK and Indian Governments need to develop at least some kind of mil/mil comms that would help cut down on the militants opportunities to capitalize on old resentments.

They don't have to like each other but at least if they are comfortable enough with the fact that their not gonna attack each other a lot of the problems might be nipped in the bud before they reach boiling point's.

As to the Kyrgyz does anyone know, if this happens do we have to keep providing the other aid we've been giving them. Seems like if they pick a side they should try living with it. ( This said of course completely Tongue in Cheek I personally have no idea as to the larger dynamic's there) but it does seem like a reasonable layman's question

[George L. Singleton]

[QUOTE=Ron Humphrey;66187]While this is understandable and especially that last part, one would think that at some point PAK and Indian Governments need to develop at least some kind of mil/mil comms that would help cut down on the militants opportunities to capitalize on old resentments.

Ron, you are thinking logically about mil to mil between Pak and India. The ethnic, religious, and geopolitical hatreds there are deep at all levels, even flag ranks who have Western univeristy degrees, etc.

What is sheer insanity or stupidity or both to us is everyday routine hatred to them, always has been, and will be for a long time to come.

Both Pakistan and India still have many poor illiterate population who have to be kept focused on something or someone to hate to avoid thinking too much about their own lack of everything in their daily lives.

One vivid memory of Karach in my day was the dead and dying just lying by the thousands on sidewalks across that city of then 14 million, now I hear maybe 20 million population...people using those sidewalks just stepped over or walked around, no concern for the lower classes at all!

[Ron Humphrey]

Kyrgyz Republic looks to lose much more then they might gain from any such venture.

Just under 36% of GDP is agriculture, much of which they enable through trade with us. And just how much exactly do they expect to gain in growth from Russian purchasing power. Less people usually equals less need for food and other such amenities, not to mention if they continue along the path they currently seem to be on it's likely that Russia grows it's defense budget which would leave even less for external expenditures.

.

Trade: Exports (2007)--$1.34 billion: cotton, wool, meat, tobacco, gold, mercury, uranium, hydropower, machinery, shoes. Partners--Russia 20.7%, Switzerland 19.9%, Kazakhstan 18.0%, Afghanistan 10.4%. Imports--$2.64 billion: oil and gas, machinery and equipment, foodstuffs. Partners--Russia 40.5%, China 14.7%, Kazakhstan 12.9%, Uzbekistan 5%

DOS


Seems like it would be a better bet counting on growth of trade with Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, India, and assorted other regionally located entities who just might be looking for trade opportunities over the next ten to 15 years.

I can just see it now. .........
(M) OK we'll forgive debt(which we never really expected to get paid anyway) and promise to build stuff and bring you into the fold, you just have to put a damper on those darn yanks expeditionary efforts. Or we could just shut of the spigit(which we're getting really good at lately ) and cut back on trade with you(which by the way we're gonna have to do anyway we just want you to think we're doin it because we want to, not have to)

And all this time all KR hears is HMMMMM blah blah blah you don't have to pay blah blah or it'll hurt.

What their thinking is wonder how much more I can get the US to pay for that $$$$$$$airfield$$$$$$

We live in one screwed up world

[jkm_101_fso]

Just saw this, looks like Pak military is helping out along supply routes:

Pakistani Forces Kill 52 Militants Near Vital Supply Route
Associated Press

ISLAMABAD — Government helicopter gunships killed 52 Islamist militants Friday in two attacks in northwestern Pakistan, a lawless region where Al Qaeda and Taliban militants increasingly hold sway, a government official said.
They destroyed five militant hide-outs, a large ammunition depot and eight vehicles, he said.

Militants have stepped up attacks in the Khyber region in recent months, seeking to disrupt a vital supply line for Western forces in neighboring Afghanistan.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,489044,00.html

[davidbfpo]

Late discovery, from the BBC on 6th Feb '09: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asi...ic/7873866.stm In summary: Kyrgyzstan says its decision to close a US base that serves as a vital supply route for US and Nato operations in Afghanistan is "final". Under the MOU the USA has six months to leave.

Nothing in ths region is either clear or simple.

davidbfpo