The claim that we lost is painful to a great many of us, but that doesn't mean it isn't true. I agree that COIN models will not work in Iraq, because it is not a true counterinsurgency for the reasons you stated. I don't think any of us truly understands the nature of this conflict, and without this understanding any strategy will be doomed to failure unless we simply get luckly and guess correctly.

I want to discuss your claim that we lost. What does that mean? Did we simply lose one battle in the war on terrorism, or is it more significant than that? Iraq wasn't part of the war on terrorism initially, but it sure as heck is now, so losing in my opinion would likely lead to the following:

1. U.S. loses credibility to lead coalitions in the near future (at least next five years), so this administration's stink will rub off on the next administration. The bottom line is we handicapp our nation's ability to pursue our international interests. (If we have lost we need to admit it, take the next step so we can begin the healing process, so we can get back on both legs sooner). This is a moderate to serious consequence.

2. Al Qaeda and other extremists become emboldened. They will sense that victory is possible and will aggressively exploit their revolution into other nations in the region and beyond. It will be a decisive victory for them psychologically, much as their perceived victory in Somalia was. When the chips are down they can refer back to the great fight in Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan (against the Russians), etc. A key to defeating insurgents and terrorists is to defeat their sense of hope, but in this case we are giving them hope, reason to continue on with their maddness. This is a serious to catastrophic consequence.

3. The entire region becomes destabilized within the next 3-5 years resulting in oil prices sky rocketing beyond a $100.00/barrel. The global economy will go into a depression. Globalism could die, and we could see a resurrgence of nation state wars where nations are competing for access to critical natural resources. This is why I am not an advocate of downsizing our conventional forces any further in an attempt to convert them into 4th Generation Warfare forces. We need 4GW forces, but our strategic requirements for conventional forces are as great as ever. Result: Economic disaster, it will take years to recover, we'll end up with new economic models, etc. Buy gold!

4. Our future leader's hands will be tied by domestic politics due to the mistrust garnered by the inept management of this war. It could lead to serious consequences, but most likely will lead to more Rwanda type situations where we could have easily intervened and prevented a humanitarian disaster that still haunts the region. President Clinton simply didn't have the resolve after pulling out of Somalia.

Our current administration talks tough, and compared to Clinton they are tough, but they're not tough enough. We're still waging a war where our hands are tied by various forms of political correctness. We have permitted safe havens in Pakistan and Syria, and I suspect support from Iran is flowing into Iraq also. If it is global war then wage it.

If you don't concur with my projected consequences of losing, I like to hear your counter arguments. I am looking forward to reading your next article.