society that is essentially not war like -- most do not want to think about war (including a surprising number in uniform...) until they have to and thus they'll put it off as long as possible.

Apparently the DSB Summer 2008 Report report LINK discusses how well we do 'own goals.'
"One of the most revealing parts of the study is a top ten list of why the U.S. gets surprised at the strategic level.

* Thought we could respond without doing anything new

* Knew it was likely, understood the magnitude of the implications, but didn’t pursue it appropriately

* Did it to ourselves

* Believed they were not up to it

* Believed they wouldn’t dare

* Knew it might happen, but were trapped in own paradigms

* Didn’t imagine or anticipate the strategic impact

* Lost in the ’signal to noise’ of other possibilities

* Imagined it, but thought it was years away

* Were willing to take the risk that it wouldn’t happen. "
I particularly like the 6th and 3rd in that order...