Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Military Commentary

[kaur]

Wartime Approaching in the Caucasus

March 12, 2009

The period when war was physically impossible in the Caucasus is now almost over, but the halfhearted attempts by European Union mediators to strengthen the ceasefire have accomplished virtually nothing.

There are still several weeks left for the West to recognize the imminent threat and begin a high-level round of shuttle diplomacy to compel or coerce all sides to genuinely strengthen the ceasefire and disengage forces. Moscow must understand all the disadvantages of a new crisis and agree to strengthen the observer mission's mandate. The Georgians must find a way to contain internal political strife. The Ossetian and Abkhaz leaders must stop mindlessly provoking a new war. In short, a miracle is needed.

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_...ash=aef92993f9

I just wonder why Flegenhauer left out variable "Russian internal clan fight". This has been getting sharper and sharper due to the economic crisis.