Nothing Changes

[William F. Owen]

As I have stated before, I really don't think that anything going on today changes in any way the fundamental nature of insurgency and counterinsurgency. But I also believe that what you see as the "realm of the military instrument" can no longer achieve the temporal success it used to do in suppressing an insurgency by bringing a military defeat to the insurgent himself. With modern information this is like trying to blow out those gag birthday cake candles that refuse to be fully extinguished regardless of how hard and frequently you blow on them.

a.) But isn't that context specific - and always has been. It worked in Sierra Leone.
b.) How does the "information" support the insurgency in A'Stan? Seriously how do images and text, actually alter the mechanics of an insurgency?

Thailands problems come from a segment of a Muslim populace that makes up less than 5% of the nation's total. So perhaps 1-2 percent of the populace actively or passively supporting the movement.

When I was in Bangkok, the head of the Army was a Muslim. If the RTA can be trained to do COIN (which they are not!) then things may change. The insurgents in the South are world class amateurs, and very, very few in number.

I do not agree that it may expand the conflict in ways that greatly increases the threat to Thailand and the region. The biggest problem with this conflict is that one day it may mean, no Muslims living in the south.... and anyone who says that can never happen doesn't know the Thais!

Military should always be a supporting arm to any COIN, and Civil leadership should never surrender its role of planning and leading the larger, overall operation.

Concur

When we invade another country and then face the violent blowback to that invasion as we work to stand up a new government the type of insurgency we face is a ressistance movement, and the underlying cause is our very presence. Worth remembering when seeking to "discover" what the root cause is.

Concur, and something you always knew and knew before you conducted the invasions. S

More challenging is understanding the many diverse causes of the many insurgents that come from their respective countries as foreign fighters under AQ's flag to join efforts to attempt to break the support of the perceived source of legitmacy to their failed governments at home.

I submit that you do understand them, and this is not a new phenomena. Their are foreign volunteers in Iraq for the same reason that there were foreign fighters in Israel in 1948, and many, many other wars through-out history.

When we conflate this as simple "terrorism" or as a "Global Insurgency" it clouds our ability to really understand what is going on and how to effectively address the problem.

I absolutely agree that using those names and descriptions is crippling stupid and always has been. Effectively addressing the problem might begin by getting folks to accept that.