Kaplan- The Revenge of Geography

[Ken White]

METT-TC. The first T is for Terrain; the geography. The article is a reminder that METT-TC is not just a mnemonic for tactical planning upon receipt of a mission but also for factors that should be considered in ALL strategy and in all operational planning. Before commitment. Even unto life itself...

I disagree with him on Iraq -- poorly prosecuted (which it was) and 'turned out badly' are two different things -- it is also entirely too early to say whether Iraq turned out in any fashion; it's ongoing. It'll be 20 - 30 years before that determination can be made with any degree of validity. My guess is that the verdict will be it turned out rather well.

Thanks for linking it, Mike. Kaplan is okay I guess and is usually a good read but he sure is a somber guy.

His last paragraph is, I think, indicative of excessively idealistic thinking (stretching...) and excessive angst -- "precipice"

"Better, instead, to look hard at the map for ingenious ways to stretch the limits it imposes, which will make any support for liberal principles in the world far more effective. Amid the revenge of geography, that is the essence of realism and the crux of wise policymaking—working near the edge of what is possible, without slipping into the precipice."

I think looking for ingenious ways to stretch limits is why we have made many foreign policy -- and military -- errors. A limit, by definition is just that. To stretch it one place will lead to distortions and unexpected, unpredictable eruptions elsewhere. Not to mention that the stretched limit may react forcefully.

Support for liberal principles in the world more effective? That's how we got in to Viet Nam (which bothers him a whole lot more than it bothers me) and Iraq in the first place. He talks of many people who do not want or need our liberal principles -- and still he wants to give them said ideals...

There is no "revenge of geography" -- geography just is. People ignore it at their peril. Some build houses on the Beach or in Flood prone areas -- then complain when the geography does what it has always done in conjunction with the geographically driven weather. Some try to live in the desert or on the steppes; the geography won't really support that so they need to expand or move...

Kaplan is somber but he does have a way of imparting or describing reality...