Distrust or Derision?

**Jedburgh** · 04-25-2009

Originally Posted by Ken White

Some veterans will be attracted by fringe groups on both sides of the ideological divide. Some will join other groups that are not mainstream.

Most will not do those things. Well over 90% won't join anything that's too far out of the mainstream simply because they've already done their out of the mainstream thing.

The number who will join is directly proportional to the total number of veterans -- thus a draft might influence it but lowered entry standards will have little to no effect; in fact, those who tend to join fringe outfits are the sharper folks. The occasional dummy will get sucked in as a gofer but that's rare -- it's the guy or gal who believe they're smart who fall for it and join.

Ken, you made the point more succinctly than did the authors of the "assessment" and certainly far more than have most of political prattle spewing out over this. One big problem, in my personal biased opinion, is the abysmal quality of the so-called analysis - as well as the perhaps non-existent editing and dissemination approval process - that went into the piece. Hell, I would have never let one of my guys publish crap like that - its distribution would be embarassing. As it has proved to be in this case; definitely far beyond what the authors ever expected.

Whether it was approved by the branch or the division chief for distro, it is still an extremely poor reflection upon the quality of the personnel (capabilities, training and management) at the Extremism and Radicalization Branch, Homeland Environment Threat Analysis Division of DHS - and, I would venture to say, the entire "intelligence" structure at DHS.

Instead of becoming a political football fueling juvenile partisan bickering, this should be focusing attention on our continuing true lack of a real domestic intelligence capability. A review by any intelligence professional of the DHS and Bureau "assessments" that have thus far been leaked reveals systemic issues with poor writing, weak and unsupported analysis and faulty judgments. For those with access, the view is worse.

Sure, there are some good intel people in both agencies - but they are in a tiny minority. Experienced intel guys tend to go to agencies and organizations that are really focused in their intelligence mission. And for the organizations in question, the effort to grow-their-own analysts clearly has not met the intent. Unless the problem is recognized for what it is - a substantive problem with training, managing, and maintaining analytic capabilities - it will never get fixed. We'll just keep seeing more poor quality reports leaked out to be twisted for political ends in this continuing bitterly partisan environment.

**Ken White** · 04-25-2009

'Course I could also say that it might be because I went to school back when they were still educating kids instead of teaching them. Or that I had rudimentary training in analysis in the days when the object was to arrive at your own conclusion based on the information available instead of producing a socially correct fluff piece that did what someone thought someone else might have wanted (past tense advisedly as prediction is seemingly eschewed today; might err...). Or even that I try to pay attention to what's going on rather than trusting today's media and the blunderitocracy...

However, being a Southron Gennelman, I will of course not say those things.

Seriously, you make valid points and the apparent lack of competence in the overall community is sometimes disheartening. Knowing a few, I realize there's a lot of competence out there in the field but some of our education and training practices seem not well thought out and some of the released -- and leaked -- products are worrisome. So is the leaking worrisome. My sensing is that the bottom rungs work as well as they can but other concerns intrude as one moves up the chain. Nothing new in that but it seems far worse than it used to be. Could be that I'm just old, out of it and grouchy.

On an allied note, I also remain concerned that the triple dilemmas of Political Correctness (of the day...), Partisan foolishness and the regrettable fact that the law enforcement establishment has the lead in our CT / CE efforts are not doing us any favors.