The Illusion of Control

[MikeF]

Below is my first draft on explaining the theory that I'm working on. I've solved it mathematically, but I'm having trouble articulating my findings....Attached is a super-cool photo of Point Lobos that speaks more than I could ever type. If you have a moment, please contribute....

v/r

Mike Few


The Illusion of Control:
Contracts, Dreams, and Democracy

Major Michael Few

Take this kiss upon the brow!
And, in parting from you now,
Thus much let me avow-
You are not wrong, who deem
That my days have been a dream;
Yet if hope has flown away
In a night, or in a day,
In a vision, or in none,
Is it therefore the less gone?
All that we see or seem
Is but a dream within a dream.

- Edgar Allen Poe, A Dream within a Dream



Military indoctrination and training teaches and demands leaders on every level take ownership of their mission and men. The fallacy in this dogma results in an illusion of control, and it is not simply constrained to the military. Commanders assume they own their men and battlespace (Ken White), policymakers assume that one can control the hearts and minds of another nation, state, tribe, or clan, some husbands and wives feel they can 'fix' or 'train' their spouses, and some family members strive to assist in the recovery of one suffering from substance abuse. Metaphorically speaking, it is but a dream within a dream. Instead, EVERYTHING in life is but a contract. We control nothing except ourselves.

The human condition starting with one's internal contract expanding to friendships, marriage, business and social relationships, citizenship, and it ebbs and flows in peace, love, and war. It just is. The contract, vow, or commitment constantly adjust as limitations, contraints, grievances, and life experiences both real and imagined interdict. In the end, it is but a negotiation, a perpetual dance- this human condition.

The confusion, collision, complexity, hostility, dynamics, and competition are expressed in nature as a wave crashes into the shore.

This paper will explain the relationships intermixed in the human condition. If correct, this explanation may allow us to transcend from philosophy to better policy as we continue to ride the wave.

[MikeF]

Hammarabi sought
to codify constructs
became known as law
across the land.
Limitations on misuse
Still, gluttony pursues
Karl Marx right
in many ways
as it pertains
to AIG
Love, Hope, and faith
never forlorn
We still patrol
in regulation
despite Keynesian worship
the quiet professional
big stick, soft walk
once again
Contracts still
to be negoitiated
understanding
any man-made construct
bound to be flawed.

Military to implement
whatever men dream
Pray for POTUS
wisdom, righteousness and such

In understanding
we cannot hope to control
others hearts and minds.

Accidental guerillas
grievances real or perceived
drones scorched the earth
in cowardice perceived

either occupy, assist
FID or forlorn
Neither choice broached.

In arguments over merit
and tabs, ribbons, and medals
disagreements over language
as terrain to geology
to human terrain to ethonography

the human condition and dimension persist
in METT-TC.

[goesh]

The history pages show there to be any number of mystic warriors and commanders, those who took theory and tactics beyond 3 dimensional thought. I call it jumping dimensions, thinking out of the box. The last known commander from the West, IMO, who fits this bill was Patton. Had he failed as a commander and given the specific nature of some of his beliefs, he would have been labeled a Section 8 crackpot and drummed into oblivion. In some arcane quarters, General P. is regarded as a mystic - what manner of man would put anthropologists in a combat zone - but the rank and file are pretty much content to leave such matters in the hands of theologians and conventional, traditional religious explanations for our contracts with the unknown. From an anonymous Sufi poet:

All That Moves

You are the wind
that turns me into a rock
unmovable
if you bring fire
I turn to water
stop your motion
and I will turn into earth
and flowers will grow

[MikeF]

Opinions are free...a dime a dozen....I simply see everything akin to nature....

The Squirrel

Nurture, nourish back to nature we must go
Foregoing pursuit of pillage
Foregoing devious throws
Focus on the family and the village

Always alone, never alone, I simply could not see
Just as the squirrel gathers nuts from the tree
Spreading the seeds, new trees spring
The circle of life continues again

But he is only a squirrel, what purpose to serve?

[jmm99]

A good start ...

from MikeF
Instead, EVERYTHING in life is but a contract. We control nothing except ourselves.

Since Hammarabi's name is mentioned in vain, I have to get a little legal. So, lots of things in life are "contracts"; but lots of things are not. They go by the names of such as "torts", "criminal acts" - to take into account bad guys who are not very agreeable.

Not sure about control - maybe it should be "we control nothing". Period. Better to learn how to ride the wave - and be concerned not how to control it. My lesson learned from the beautiful photo.

Just some thoughts for you two poets.

PS: The purpose of being a squirrel, of course.

[MikeF]

A good start ...



Since Hammarabi's name is mentioned in vain, I have to get a little legal. So, lots of things in life are "contracts"; but lots of things are not. They go by the names of such as "torts", "criminal acts" - to take into account bad guys who are not very agreeable.

Not sure about control - maybe it should be "we control nothing". Period. Better to learn how to ride the wave - and be concerned not how to control it. My lesson learned from the beautiful photo.

Just some thoughts for you two poets.

PS: The purpose of being a squirrel, of course.

thanks jmm...i'm just sorting through thoughts at this point...Hopefully, the thoughts will merge lest someone contradicts

I believe that I'm on to something...Running towards not away that is....

[slapout9]

Hmmmm so riddle me this. How did Hitler recover his country after the ruinous inflation created by the privately owned and run banking system? As far as control is there something to learn from this? Can such an evil person provide good insight into how to run an economy and honest banking system?

[MikeF]

Hmmmm so riddle me this. How did Hitler recover his country after the ruinous inflation created by the privately owned and run banking system? As far as control is there something to learn from this? Can such an evil person provide good insight into how to run an economy and honest banking system?

Good points slap...

Emotions and logic intertwined...Fear overcame greed and Adam Smith rolled in his grave.

Plus, german language is construed in such a manner that the world evolves and reacts not around them but to them...

It's how they think in a victim role...I do not pretend to understand that...maybe Marc can explain....

v/r

mike

[slapout9]

It's how they think in a victim role...I do not pretend to understand that...maybe Marc can explain....

v/r

mike

Definitely are marct question

[MikeF]

Definitely are marct question

....

In some ways, it's a cop question...A WWI private writes a memoir dubbed "My struggle," and brings change.

Why?

I don't suppose he's the only one who struggled.

Nor do I suppose others blamed the jews.

I know what I'm saying is simpliflied, but maybe that's how you ride the wave Cali style and stuff...

[MikeF]

Poe was kicked out of USMA, and he died drunk in a gutter.

Hitler committed suicide.

Patton died in a traffic accident.

Maybe all of this is conjecture....maybe not.

v/r

Mike

[slapout9]

....

In some ways, it's a cop question...A WWI private writes a memoir dubbed "My struggle," and brings change.

Why?

I don't suppose he's the only one who struggled.

Nor do I suppose others blamed the jews.

I know what I'm saying is simpliflied, but maybe that's how you ride the wave Cali style and stuff...

He restored confidence to the German people...and legitimacy to the German government. Every Economics textbook I have ever seen always has a picture of a German pushing a wheelbarrow full of German money to buy a loaf of bread because of hyper inflation. They also leave out the facts that it was private fractional banking that caused it!!! So when I was a student I asked how did Hitler take this broke ass country that could not get a loan from anybody and turn it into an economic giant (on civilian industries not military)? Of course my professor didn't know...nobody ever thought of or asked that question. And if you believe in conspiracy this is some of the hardest information you will ever try to find.

Condensed version is he fired the private bankers and said Germany will create it's own money and credit. Then basically two laws were passed allowing him to do this. One bank law and one....Full Employment Law. He reasoned if everyone had a job they would have money.....if they had money they would buy stuff.....which would cause business to expand.


So how did he start it when he couldn't get a loan. All countries essentially pay their bills with taxes collected from the people. So if no one has any money and you have no tax income what do you do???? borrow it from the tax payers but give it to them so they can spend it into the economy.... not to businesses.

To clarify he paid everyones bills so to speak until businesses start hiring them back because there was demand for their products....then he started to collect taxes to stabilize the money supply and avoid a hyper-inflation. And they went from zero to 100 mph in about 2 years. He did heavy infrastructure programs (The Autobahn was one) he refused to finance industries....they had to earn it or get there own financing (which many did because they had paying customers with jobs)what a concept

Point being he decided to take control and do the right thing for his people the purpose of Government, instead of trying to control them. He helped them and they reciprocated it's that Calif. Zen thing. To get control give up control.

Do the right thing for the people not a special interest group!!!...gee sounds like a COIN principle

Then he went all crazy and stuff and started trying to control people....and the rest is history.

[William F. Owen]

Military indoctrination and training teaches and demands leaders on every level take ownership of their mission and men. The fallacy in this dogma results in an illusion of control, and it is not simply constrained to the military. Commanders assume they own their men and battlespace (Ken White), policymakers assume that one can control the hearts and minds of another nation, state, tribe, or clan, some husbands and wives feel they can 'fix' or 'train' their spouses, and some family members strive to assist in the recovery of one suffering from substance abuse. Metaphorically speaking, it is but a dream within a dream. Instead, EVERYTHING in life is but a contract. We control nothing except ourselves.

I can only quote a good friend of mine who I met at the Infantry School at Brecon, where he was the Senior Division Sgt Major, who says

"Work with the chaos, not against it."

This is, to my mind exactly correct. Most concepts of C2 look to impose order on the chaos, where as the ones that actually work, function within the chaos because they are not dependant on the precision, and procedures that operational conditions will make impossible.

[goesh]

We contract with the unknown and call it faith or hope all the while wanting some control over our destiny.

[MikeF]

I can only quote a good friend of mine who I met at the Infantry School at Brecon, where he was the Senior Division Sgt Major, who says

"Work with the chaos, not against it."

This is, to my mind exactly correct. Most concepts of C2 look to impose order on the chaos, where as the ones that actually work, function within the chaos because they are not dependant on the precision, and procedures that operational conditions will make impossible.

The Monterey Aquarium has an amazing exhibit demonstrating the 3 tiers of life sustained inside a wave.

1. Top layer- most hostile. Plants and sea creatures simply rock to and fro within the cycle of the wave.

2. Middle layer- adaptation and specialization. Plants/sea creatures constantly adapt to the ever changing conditions.

3. Bottom layer- stability. mostly unaffected by the chaos.

I suppose that's the Darwin thing. Funny, most never look below the surface to see what's going on. Some only see a wave. That's Samuel Coyne's meta-game. For COIN, that's how we determine why some Shias side with al Qaeda and some non-religious women blow themselves up.

v/r

Mike

[marct]

Plus, german language is construed in such a manner that the world evolves and reacts not around them but to them...
It's how they think in a victim role...I do not pretend to understand that...maybe Marc can explain....

Definitely are marct question

Well, I can "explain" it, but I doubt that explanation would be the "truth" .

For a start, "Germany" (more properly the Germanies) has had the snot kicked out of it for the last 1200 years or so (and the Russians thought they had it bad !). They were also ruled by the sorriest lot of idiots for most of that time - people who made Attila look like a bunnies and light nice guy. At the same time, they did have a few rulers who could find themselves without 20 servants to point the way... Frederick Barbarossa comes to mind.

If you look at Germany mythography, the image of the strong man - heroic Leader (capital L on purpose) - is very apparent, and Hitler certainly played on this mythography quite heavily. By contrast, if you look at US mythography, the "leader" motif is played out in a character who is "self made" or, if from one of the elites, has at least got his "hands dirty doing real work" (think JFK or Senator McCain on that one).

Back to Hitler for a moment....

If you read Mein Kamp, especially Book 1, Chapter 11, Hitler was drawing on a conspiracy theory explanation for why the German people had been so downtrodden. He also gave his followers a well understood scapegoat, one they were very familiar with, and wrapped that conspiracy theory in a mantel of pseudo-scientific BS (I'm not going to go into the origins of it ) that gave it a cachet of "validity" to go along with its already fitting into the cultural matrix (especially in Bavaria).

In many ways, Hitler's propaganda campaign is quite related to the takfiri junk being spewed by AQI. They are both revitalization movements; they both have an identified enemy, and they both hearken back to a "Golden Age".

[Ken White]

"...they both have an identified enemy, and they both hearken back to a "Golden Age"."

As do I...

and you say that as if there were something wrong...

[marct]

As do I...

and you say that as if there were something wrong...

Not at all, I do too ! Long Live Richard III!!!!!!!!!!

[JHR]

"It is not the facts but the relation of things that results in the universal harmony." Robert Persig
You bike fans proabably recognize the source.
JHR

[MikeF]

We contract with the unknown and call it faith or hope all the while wanting some control over our destiny.

"It is not the facts but the relation of things that results in the universal harmony." Robert Persig

This ties in with my current thoughts...

As a young cadet, tank platoon leader in Baghdad, staff officer with CJSOTF-AP, and recon commany commander in Diyala, I would have applauded and absorbed FM 3-24.2 Tactics in COIN.

As a young major, I am frustrated. Our current writing is at least 3 years behind the curve in our tactics, doctrine and strategy. Particularly when you consider the current dillemas in Iraq, Af-Pak, India, and Africa. This observation is not to take away from the boys working hard on doctrine. I'm just trying to state fact as I observe it. They should be applauded for their efforts (it should have been written years ago).

When I was in the breach, I was no better than anyone else. Tonight, I vent.

1. Reconnaissance is everything. Recon is hand-waved in the FM. The enemy has the information advantage- he can see you, but you cannot see him. Period. To overcome this, one must recon. That means sneaking in at night under the cover of darkness and watching- no technology, no ISR, nothing- just eyes and ears. During the day, you talk to the people. What is most important is what is left unsaid.

2. There is no Human Terrain. There are people.

3. There is no AOR. There is no control. One is merely riding a wave. If you are really good, then you may influence. If not, then you simply get in the way.

4. When you get frustrated, go back to recon- own the night. You will be suprised at what happens when people don't think you're around.

5. We must learn to talk and coordinate with PRTs, NGOs, social entrepeneurs, and relief groups.

6. You cannot wire-diagram 25 million people.

7. Timing is everything. There is a time to kill and a time to heal.

8. Interdiction can only occur after an insurgency enters Mao's Phase III.

More to follow as I collect my thoughts...If I'm off a bit, please feel free to to let me know.

v/r

Mike