Mathematics of War
Interesting findings from Ted.com. Uses math to observe trends in the Surge in Iraq and other wars.
Sean Gourley on the mathematics of war
About this talk:
By pulling raw data from the news and plotting it onto a graph, Sean Gourley and his team have come up with a stunning conclusion about the nature of modern war -- and perhaps a model for resolving conflicts.
About Sean Gourley:
Sean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict.
v/r
Mike
Variation of the Frequency of Fatal Quarrels With Magnitude
Just a heads up, what Sean finds is actually a very old result that is well-known in social science. In fact, it was first discovered about sixty years ago by a meteorologist.
http://www.drewconway.com/zia/?p=577
I am a bit surprised it is getting the coverage that it is.
People and numbers don't mix well. Attempts to mathematically model
human interaction will always show patterns -- and different modelers will draw different patterns from the same data. You cannot put people in boxes IMO; you have to deal with the person or group as they are and as they constantly shift and change.
Well, you can put 'em in boxes and rely on trends, I suppose. Seen a lot of folks do some fascinating variations on that. None successfully, as I recall...
All things considered, though, I don't guess a Physicist playing around with the People thing is any worse than Economists trying to do that...
Thanks...
Drew,
Thanks for the link, it led to the JASS site which has some interesting papers and references a book from the Springer publishing house; I enjoy some of their financial mathematical modeling series books...quality works which require a fair amount of time, but are well worth the read.
Regards,
Steve
Sapere Aude
While it might be old news, it is new news to me. I thought the most stunning conclusion was that Alpha was the structure of the insurgency and this structure followed the same slope downward for all war. This means that it doesn’t matter what the structure of an insurgency looks like, it follows the same path.Originally Posted by MikeF
Of course, right now that slope (path) is actually moving upward for the war in Iraq, which is really bad news. It probably means that the surge worked well at first, but has now out-lived its usefulness. The surge was able to isolate the fragmented insurgency into separate orientations (that were more deadly, but less able to freely carry-out attacks) to control the number of attacks (as you said on another post, command doesn’t really have control), but then something else has happened. The insurgency has become more fragmented and more deadly.
Because, according to the data, it doesn’t matter what the insurgency looks like, it looks like a whole new war has broken out. Sean didn’t say where, spatially, this war was taking place, but I am not sure what will keep it from spreading, if the surge didn’t work. Of course I am also assuming the US forces are trying to maintain the surge, and I may be wrong on that. It could be we are adapting to this new war or the Iraqi Security Forces have the lead.
It doesn’t look like the Iraqi Security Forces are prepared to handle this insurgency as the Iraqi Security Forces are largely unfunded (let's hope this doesn't happen to ours) and (perhaps) unwanted.
As I commented on Drew’s post, it doesn’t appear like our troops are ever coming home. As this new war spreads, we will simply become more and more involved. It also might be that our forces or nation doesn't understand another war has broken-out since the surge, if that is indeed what the data is telling us, and I think it is.
If we don't understand the situation, it is very easy to get sucked-up into a very nasty one, without our vertical and horizontal forces being prepared.
Perhaps a "fake" science, like social science, will tell you the vertical or horizontal forces don't need to know, I think that is a lie.
I think the military might actually benefit from applying some principles of economics. And data analysis can make sense out of seamingly unrelated events. But it can't replace common sense. It was, after all, often physicists who built mathmatical models for pricing financial products. Oops!
"But it can't replace common sense. It was, after all, often physicists who built mathmatical models for pricing financial products. Oops!"
True, common sense would have told us not to put that much power in the hands of greedy and unregulated bodies, but how was the physicist supposed to know? It doesn't seem related.
Sean pretty-much just laid it out without any conclusions, as did the physicists who put the mathmatical models for pricing financial products together. It was then on a need-to-know protocol. The financial sector picked the wrong guys.
Last edited by Larry Dunbar; 05-09-2009 at 07:00 PM.
Really? that would be news if it were even close to the facts on the ground. The "surge" was not a monolithic event and neither was the insurgency.
Again that would be very interesting if it looked that way on the ground. Your assumption on the "surge" is much dated. ISF are very much in the lead.Because, according to the data, it doesn’t matter what the insurgency looks like, it looks like a whole new war has broken out. Sean didn’t say where, spatially, this war was taking place, but I am not sure what will keep it from spreading, if the surge didn’t work. Of course I am also assuming the US forces are trying to maintain the surge, and I may be wrong on that. It could be we are adapting to this new war or the Iraqi Security Forces have the lead.
Who is unfunded? The ISF certainly is funded; there are issues with Iraq's budget but the ISF are hardly unfunded.It doesn’t look like the Iraqi Security Forces are prepared to handle this insurgency as the Iraqi Security Forces are largely unfunded (let's hope this doesn't happen to ours) and (perhaps) unwanted.
Again a new war as opposed to an old war? Who has issues understanding what?As I commented on Drew’s post, it doesn’t appear like our troops are ever coming home. As this new war spreads, we will simply become more and more involved. It also might be that our forces or nation doesn't understand another war has broken-out since the surge, if that is indeed what the data is telling us, and I think it is.
I agree that understanding is mandatory; exactly what are vertical and horizontal forces?If we don't understand the situation, it is very easy to get sucked-up into a very nasty one, without our vertical and horizontal forces being prepared.
Perhaps a "fake" science, like social science, will tell you the vertical or horizontal forces don't need to know, I think that is a lie
Do us all a favor and introduce yourself so we could put your comments in context.
Thanks
Tom
I'm not sure if this is a badly timed April Fool or if we are supposed to take this seriously at all.
Seriously? What has the data he gathered go to do with the output he is showing and also how is this output insightful, useful or relevant?
How does it describe the structure of the insurgency? He states it does but I don't see the proof.
I am extremely interested in an explanation.
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"
- The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
- If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition
Aw, C'mon Tom
You know the old 'horizontal and vertical force'. Surely All COIN experts use those terms ;-) don't tell me the pony soldiers don't??gee, I am amazed...
You had better get across what is happening on the ground.................:-]
Last edited by Mark O'Neill; 05-10-2009 at 01:01 PM.
I don't know
I posted it b/c I want to see what others felt about it. Gurley doesn't suggest any conclusions b/c he cannot. He is a physicist, not a soldier, but he did find a trend. Moreover, he's getting people across both the academic and military worlds upset, but he's getting them to think.
I think that's a good thing- too much of our past policy was based off idealogy not reason and history. He hasn't proving anything, but he's started a discussion.
He may not have found anything, but I don't think that he should be dismissed as irrelevant. The next step is to gather more data and test it. Using econometrics(statistics on crack), one can determine if his equation is useful or simply luck.
And he has a cool accent.
I'm on my Emerson kick right now. We'll see where it leads. Here's what he says,
All science has one aim, namely, to find a theory of nature. We have theories of races and of functions, but scarcely yet a remote approach to an idea of creation. We are now so far from the road to truth, that religious leaders dispute and hate each other, and speculative men are esteemed unsound and frivolous. But to a sound judgment, the most abstract truth is the most practical. Whenever a true theory appears, it will be its own evidence. Its test is that it will explain all phenomenav/rIn truth, undoubtedly we have no questions to ask which are unanswerable. We must trust the perfection of the creation so far, as to believe that whatever curiosity the order of things has awakened in our minds, the order of things can satisfy. Every man’s condition is a solution in hieroglyphic to those inquiries he would put. He acts it as life, before he apprehends it as truth. In like manner, nature is already, in its forms and tendencies, describing its own design. Let us interrogate the great apparition that shines so peacefully around us. Let us inquire, to what end is nature?
Mike
Last edited by MikeF; 05-10-2009 at 02:54 PM.
Time
Here's another way to look at it abstract as it is.
Time
In times of doubt
In times of fear
In times of anger
In due time
Simply a wave
in the ocean
of what we call
time
Searching
Striving
for nothing
and everything
Paradox,
but is it?
Because we simply cannot comprehend
the Creator's equation
If we would only simply listen
to what she has to say
Maybe one day
In due time
v/r
Mike
Most of America already benefits from mathematical modeling and simulation
Mathematical modeling and simulation (war gaming) allows anybody who is willing to spend the time, effort, or resources to cost effectively examine various scenarios. From this examination one can develop probable costs, schedules, and benchmarks associated with a particular endeavor and chose the one most likely to result in success. As with any methodology, advice derived from mathematical modeling and simulation does not give a leader a magic pass to ignore common sense nor is it to be feared as voodoo magic whose use will consign our souls to the lowest circles of hell.
America as a whole understands the importance of war-gaming at a very deep level; note our world-renowned college educational system and until recently, our possession of the worlds strongest financial system. Our college system consistently explores the concepts of mathematical modeling and simulation in associate through graduate educational programs in business, engineering, finance, and manufacturing – all disciplines that are crucial to a nations ability to survive and thrive. When the immediate dust of the current financial debacle settles, I expect that we will still have the strongest financial system...however we have permanently damaged ourselves and it will take time and effort to recover.
The Economists 2009 Pocket World in Figures ranks economies by GDP in USD:
1. America 13,164 billion
2. Japan 4,368 billion
3. Germany 2,897
4. China 2,645 billion
5. United Kingdom 2,377 billion
In the US military the Air Force and Navy have taken a page from the successes of the civilian world (and of course vice versa) and worked to incorporate the use of mathematical modeling and simulation into their daily operations. We in much of the US Army still prefer to war game things in the physical world: our Combat Training Centers are heavily resourced examples of this preference. We in the Army are slowly, when compared to my civilian experiences, moving in the direction of incorporating mathematical modeling and simulation into our TTP’s. This journey will take time, have setbacks, and generally be a PITA however when balanced against the adapt or die imperative it’s an easy choice to make.
@ Mike F. - Thanks for starting the discussion and providing the Ted link.
Last edited by Surferbeetle; 05-10-2009 at 05:09 PM.
Sapere Aude
Charlie don't surf
But, I do. I believe that we are at one of those times in history where the decisions we make will effect our future. It is simply a matter on how we act or react. For your consideration. This narrative is simply one way of looking at today's world.
v/r
Mike
I think you ought to know, dear brothers, about the hard time we went through in Asia. We were really crushed and overwhelmed, and feared we would never live through it. We felt we were doomed to die and saw how powerless we were to help ourselves; but that was good, for then we put everything into the hands of God, who alone could save us, for He can even raise the dead. And He did help us, and saved us from a terrible death; yes, and we can expect him to do it again.
-Apostle Paul and Timothy's letter to Corinth
Today's world seems chaotic, confusing, and uncontrollable- terrorism, economic upheaval, flu pandemics, insurgencies, narco-insurgencies, and failed/failing states. In these times of perceived crisis, some use fear to push individual agendas while others are overcome by greed and manipulate events for pursuit of gluttony. Conversely, leaders, commanders, and statesmen have taken action during these times to push projects of progress to better serve the common good.
We are in such a time now, and we need to consider how we will act. In the big ocean that scopes and frames what we call human history, time, matter, and space, waves ebbs and flow in a perfect pattern. Every generation or two, deep within the depths of darkness along the ocean's floor, the earth shifts and quakes in a bifurcation point, and the energy produced forms a tsunami.
We are in such a time now. It is neither good nor bad, better or worse. It just is. Paradoxically, today is the same as yesterday. It is simply a matter of how we feel and think about it.
The arithematics of life I suppose. If it is possible to measure nature in math, if it is possible to send a man to the moon and beyond, then it maybe possible to develop laws of social sciences if the creator allows us to see his equations.
Today, I see opportunity, but it is more than that- I am pondering and dreaming of the world that my great-great grandchildren will inherit. Will they be conscripted in an occupational army trying to maintain the American Empire? Will they work as social entrepeneurs trying to educate the illiterate, feed the hungry, house the homeless, and employ the unemployed? Will they live in a police state as the Department of Homeland Security attempts to control thoughts in fear of a terrorist attack? Will they be studying the former United States of America in their textbooks? I wander and wonder.
"But, My son, be warned: there is no end of opinions ready to be expressed. Studying them can go on forever and become very exhausting!" (Ecclesiastes 12:12 LB).
Last edited by MikeF; 05-10-2009 at 06:42 PM.
But....
We routinely disqualify testimony that would plead for extenuation. That is, we are so persuaded of the rightness of our judgement as to invalidate evidence that does not confirm us in it. Nothing that deserves to be called truth could ever be arrived at by such means.
-Marilynne Robinson, The Death of Adam
so in the middle you have a paradox...I'm still in the middle...There are times when you choose to believe something that would normally be considered absolutely irrational. It doesn't mean that it is actually irrational, but it is surely not rational. Perhaps it is suprarationality: reason beyond the normal definitions of fact or data-based logic; something that makes sense only if you can see a bigger picture of reality. Maybe that is where faith fits in. -Wm. Paul Young, The Shack
v/r
Mike
.
Mike, good job posting it. I think it merits attention, but having given it some I am less than impressed.
Well the field of military data and statistics is vast. Despite what he says, I am 99% sure the Pentagon has done the same analysis, and found it generates nothing useful. The discussion is probably more about the relevance and utility of this work rather than if it tells us anything new or insightful, but I am not closed minded in such things.I think that's a good thing- too much of our past policy was based off idealogy not reason and history. He hasn't proving anything, but he's started a discussion.
I would however me more than slightly wary as to the degree of self promotion that seems to be at work.
He's a New Zealander!! Wait till you hear my accent.And he has a cool accent.
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"
- The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
- If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition
The Displacement of Energy
“exactly what are vertical and horizontal forces?”
War has been defined by many descriptions, but it simply is the displacement of energy, from one orientation into another. This is the main reason the power-law distribution applies to war. There are two forms of energy inside every displacement, kinetic and potential. Kinetic energy has mostly a component of Vertical force, while potential energy has mostly a component of horizontal force. Together the vertical and horizontal forces move the displacement from potential to kinetic and back again. It works in a loop and that loop, to some, is called an OODA loop.
Vertical forces are the forces that the horizontal forces of a country are able to support. The horizontal force is the amount of force between you and I, which is growing. Actually, the horizontal force is the amount of force a society has between its past and future, but it is not always (never) figured in that way.
Force at a distance is the definition of energy. When the vertical force moves, the distance from one country to another, it is called kinetic energy. The amount of power, energy per second, a country can throw at another country depends on how much vertical force the horizontal force can support, @ the distance and over time.
My guess why the power-law distribution “works” in Iraq or any war is that Alpha describes the structure of the insurgency and that structure, in Iraq, represents the orientation on the other side of the power curve of the US, and to a degree the Iraqi Security Forces. The Data is not for a particular orientation (religious, warlords, tribes, or thugs) only that orientation opposing the new Orientation. I capitalized the last Orientation because it represents the second "O" in the OODA loop (Orientation is what a vertical force does after it Penetrates the Observed environment of another displacement; it Isolates the displacement into Orientations, isolation does not always mean: to kill).
I don't follow that at all, and which OODA loop are you talking about? Boyd's and if so which iteration of the loop?
Plus I don't remember Boyd mentioning any of the aspects you are talking about relating to the OODA loop, which as far as I know was entirely cognitive.
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"
- The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
- If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition
Mett-tc
In the military world, we call this METT-TC. If you look at a state as a homeostatic system, then you may be able forecast how that system will change when you introduce "new" energy or external forces into it.
Wilf- this understanding is intuitive to you, Ken, etc, but it is not intuitive to most. Science can provide another lens to help explain it.
For example, Iraq circa 2002 was stable in Iraqi terms. They had a nice dictator, and things worked. There were no suicide bombers (i think). The radical Islamist plotting to ovethrow the government in places like Turki Village were marginalized, etc.
We decided that we should overthrow the natural order of thngs. We ASSUMED that after we took over, we coulld hold elections, and little americans would emerge from the ashes. We assumed that we could undertake such a venture with minimal force and cost. We were wrong. Our planning was based off ideology, not reason and historical fact.
I think we can do better in the future, but we have to apply the physical sciences along with the social sciences.
Gurley may be an opportunist, but I'm developing theories along similar lines that may help us to better plan and prosecute future interventions.
Larry's analogy to the displacement of energy has merit if you apply it to societies. Not sure about the OODA loop thing though.
v/r
Mike
Metaphors ....
may be useful to an individual in helping that person visualize a situation (let us say, war) to which the metaphor does not directly apply. E.g., Larry sees war as a matter of statics and dynamics - based on an engineering education.
Wilf see things in a very military context - based on an education in practical warfare - and he also has read and written much in that context. He does not need metaphors.
I suppose one could look at an "armed conflict" (let us say, Iraq) as akin to a problem in biochemical reaction kinetics - introduction of forces, energy and catalysts (don't forget them) into a homeostatic system (as MikeF suggests).
At least, we would be dealing with a living system there (and a lot of cool graphs, showing what works and what does not). But what does that add ? - except to the understanding of the individual who has developed the metaphor.
More generally, we see engineering concepts such as mass introduced into the "equations" of war (e.g., MOOSEMUSS). Now to a engineering-scientific type (and yes, I do have a good degree in that area with some grad work), mass itself doesn't say much (so many particles of a defined substance).
But, there are some formulations which include mass: e.g, weight, vector forces, momentum, center of gravity, energy (after all, E=mc^2=nuks), that are used (sometimes usefully, sometimes not) as metaphors in the military art by its professionals. And, of course, we have CvC's fogs and frictions used as metaphors by him.
Sometimes metaphors are useful to groups of people, as well as to the individual. But, they also introduce terminology which has to be explained - and which can simply clutter up the picture and actually retard mutual understanding.
Admittedly, metaphors can be fun[*], but in the end you have to get down to the things which you actually do in your art and profession.
So, I guess I come down more on Wilf's side of the ledger - despite having little differences such as whether flying airliners into buildings can be classed as military operations in the context of an armed conflict.
---------------------
[*] e.g., waves and surfing - or my now deceased colleague's maxim: "You have to roll with the flow." He was an artist; I am a technician - the maxim applies to both kinds of trial lawyers; but both end up expressing what counts in factual and legal terms.
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