I like this point Bill, but I'm afraid we cannot pull the population away from the insurgency for a simple reason, and that is the fact that we do not control the ground.I think our COIN doctrine has merit, and would work if applied correctly from day one in numerous countries inflected with insurgencies. I think we have to pull the population away from the insurgency to the government, and if you can't do that you can't win.
We need an infusion of boots on the ground, to put more eyes on the population (i.e. owning every street corner). The top generals are likely right, and any upsurge in troop levels is irrelevant if we cannot keep our mind on the mission after we have defined their purpose.
Everytime I see an Iraqi on the street interviewed on the MSM, their central concern is security, security, security. To many average Iraqis, we must seem terribly impotent because the IEDs and SVBIEDs continue to kill and maim. I can't blame any Iraqi for not hearing us out on our IO message, because the most powerful message are the bodies turning up in morgues and IP recruiting center explosions.
I too think we are past the point of using civil affairs projects as carrots. We are in the middle of a terrible Catch-22 right now. If force levels don't increase, we cannot afford to bolster Baghdad at the expense of outlying areas, because the bad guys will simply leak out to lesser secured areas and continue their program of death. We need to start smothering that place like a blanket.
As for turning terrs, I don't think there can be any success unless we achieve significant religious cooperation. We need to "un-indoctrinate" these detained/captured knuckle-heads that the bloodshed goes against the Quran (are there references to that fact?). When you have guys willing to drive an explosive-laden car into the midst of a busy farmers market, I think that you've got to reverse that bad seed through religion.
Are we attacking the root of the problem from the wrong angle?
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