Jcustis - our ability to prosecute the GWOT in general will be enhanced manyfold by our knowledge of tribes. One of our errors as westerners is to assume that there is such a thing as a tribe that is confined within national borders.
We are all concerned with the war against terror here, and our enemy as substantial mastery of the tribal system, does use this material. Have a look at Al-Sahab.com, and you will find that members of the salafist community that sympathize (work with) AQ and other affilliated organizations trade this data, and I must assume that this is because the tribal networks are their logistical and recruitment networks. (Actually, that's not an assumption.)
So, why should we care? Because detailed knowledge of the tribal networks are vital to our lines of effort in Iraq and the GWOT.
Willful ignorance of this will teach us very painful lessons that result ultimately in the deaths of our soldiers. Sythesis of tribal network analysis has and will continue to play a very important role in our lines of effort. Not continuing to develop our capabilities in that is like saying we don't need a rifle that is better than the M16, or that we don't need to develop new weapons systems, or that we should ignore Iran. It's a bad mistake, considering that we'll likely be involved in the Middle East for the forseeable future, and that the small wars that we prosecute in other places throughout the world largely take place in tribal socities. If we develop solid and precise methodologies in Iraq, they will come in handy in the Horn of Africa, the Phillipines....
In other words, tribal analysis has been a huge force multiplier or us in certain circles. Yes I am an advocate of expanding this capability so that we can have it at the ready for future conflicts. Precision in this area gives us great insight into the "why" of the intelligence process in terms of prosecuting a COIN. As others have noted in other forums, we have some serious S2 shortcoming in terms of syntesizing cultural data into the intelligence process. The rewards for successfully doing so are readily apparent as per the capture of Khalid ((Al-Mashhadani)) on 4Jul07 - a noble tribesman that Nibras Al-Kazimi identified as being Abu 'Umar Al-Baghdadi in his blog www.talismangate.blogspot.com. Khalid was a noble tribesman! Sheikh Hamid ((Al-Zawi)), the new Abu 'Umar Al-Baghdadi is, too! What does this tell you about AQ's tribal engagement strategy?
Not care about the tribes? The enemy does. The Awakening is completely tribal. The tribal system can be our friend, or an enemy to be feared. Just ask the Brits who were massacred in the Middle Euphrates in 1920.
I think it would be wise to analyze all phenomena that occur in Iraq in from a tribal perspective, in addition to others. My experience from doing so is that it is often more reliable than other, western oriented means of analysis. More importantly, history teaches us that ignoring the tribes leads to failure when it comes to the Middle East! We are prosecuting a COIN. Ignoring the organic political structures of the green population is unsound from a conceptual point of view, in my opinion. However, my views are the product of my experiences, education, and those who have had great influence on me throughout my life. The truth is bigger than that, of course.
All of your comments are great - I'm interested in this ((Al-Samida'a)) character that one of our members had the pleasure of working with. It might please you to know that he is a noble tribesmen - and while some might wish to downplay this - the subject of noble tribes seems to keep rearing its head in terms of the insurgency on both the Shi'ite and Sunni sides of the fence. I find the fact that Mr. ((Al-Samida'a)) uses his tribal name to be very interesting, particularly if he downplays the importance of tribalism in Iraq to you. In fact, the concept of noble tribes is culturally central in terms of tribalism and Islam despite the fact that the noble tribes are small. Why is this?
The Iraqi intelligentsia wants to move us away from analyzing their society in terms of tribes, and to the degree that such a thing would be insulting I can understand that position. Keeping in mind such sensitivities is important, this doesn't discourage me from diving into the issue. There is certainly a time and place for discussing tribalism- and talking tribalism in a meeting with a major representative of the Iraqi government might not be the most polite thing to do until you have an established and trusted relationship with that individual that has lasted for more than a few hours, and when the conversation is private.
As the sheikh of the ((Al-'Akra'a)) ((Al-Shimmari)) tribe told me a couple of months ago "Yes, we have our doctors, our lawyers and our politicians, and they say that they aren't us (tribesmen). Actually, they always are, and always will be. We Iraqis are like schools of fish - we can only swim in certain waters. If we go to waters where there is the slightest change in salinity, it could kill us. We like to stay together."
Outstanding comments all - fascinating. Again, the noble tribes.....
V/r,
sam
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