That is not just a general statement - with all the caveats going along with that - but stating that "westerners" assume such a thing is yet another assumption on your part. As someone who was not too long ago a young buck sergeant in uniform, you know exactly what assume means.Originally Posted by tribeguy
Awareness of cross-border (often not just two, but multiple borders) has long been critical in strategic intelligence analysis and especially for SOF. It was known and exploited in many ways by both sides during the good ol' Cold War days.
And tribal network analysis is simply another aspect of simple social network analysis. Hell, I've worked tribal influence linkages since the stubby pencil days of charting. Most other old HUMINT'ers with a focus in regions with substantial tribal populations could say the same thing in their unique context. As a relatively recent example, in the early '90s (during Provide Comfort) we did extensive tribal analysis integrating that with resettlement patterns and the influence of political parties among the Kurds. And during the period between Desert Storm and OIF, extensive study and research was done at the strategic level (and in academic circles) on how Saddam manipulated tribal relations to solidify his power base.
I could go on and on with historic examples - both of success and failure in where tribal knowledge (or the lack thereof) played a role. With regard to what most consider the roles of intelligence and policy in "modern" warfare, there are extensive lessons dating back to WWI. But you could all the way back to Caesar's Commentarii de Bello Gallico and see how he took tribal networks into consideration during the IPB process and how it ultimately affected operations. A lot of lessons have been forgotten, but new ones are being learned - and making general statements about how the importance of tribes is being ignored is simply insulting to all of those who effectively integrate such awareness into operations and policy.
The "willful ignorance" comment with regard to al-Qa'ida's exploitation of tribal networks for logistics and recruitment is a also a bit over the top. (Whether or not it is self-serving is another question) Those focused with real responsibility on the issue are have long been well aware of such exploitation, as well as how important tribal networks are for JI and other such organizations. But there is an entire spectrum of influence factors, and to focus too tightly on tribes - as to focus too narrowly on any aspect - is a recipe for failure.
Finally, as regards this continuing discussion, your arguments thus far tend to be devoid of substantial context, failing to flesh out your position clearly at the strategic, operational or tactical levels. You're crying out listen to me, I know the answers, yet your own assumptions and repeated generalizations in pushing your single-focus agenda do you little intellectual credit. I'll pass on the book.
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