Overplayed in some cases - yes. The Tribal Awakening is certainly overplayed at his point in time.
Overplayed in accordance with our understanding of tribes yes. But there is something about the tribal system that we don't get -that something is where tribe and sect meet.
The underlying story of the insurgency, and much of Iraqi history has to do with struggles of groups of people over who should rule the Caliphate. Tribe and sect meet at this juncture.
Which are the tribes from which the ruler of the Caliphate should come? This is a body of knowledge that you don't find in western books, and further puts UBL and middle eastern political Islam in a light that is much more understandable, and gives more predictive power than trying to interpret events on the ground in terms of who we westerners think about the tribes.
The Tribal Awakening, from a certain perspective, has been overplayed.
The analysis of tribes with respect to actually figuring out "why" the insurgency happened, and why those conditions still exist today speaks to the center of COIN.
The noble tribes are most certainly a part of this answer. I certainly don't mean to downplay the efforts of those with "real responsibility" in that area, however, I am also certain that nobody is talking about the noble tribes and their dispositions with respect to the current GOI. The divergence of interest between Sunni Noble tribes and their Shi'ite counterparts explains an awful lot about why the insurgency wasn't a united front against US forces, and why they were fighting each other.
True, I am withholding some information - but I am doing so so that you all can be the ones who discover this on your own. The subject falls squarely in the field of our anthropologist friends. They are the ones that should be able to answer the questions regarding the noble tribes with great specificity with respect to Iraq. Their theories and analytical models, if applied most directly to events on the ground in Iraq, will show what I am talking about with respect to the noble tribes.
Do a cursory review of all of the AUAB's except for the ((Al-Mujama'i)) that is in custody right now (he's an imposter - a tool in an information operation against AQ). Find out whether or not they are from noble tribes.
Then, do a cursory review of the tribal affiliations of Iraqi Shi'ite Imams (not ((Al-Sistani)), he's Irani).
So what? I think you will find that all of the AUAB's are from Sunni noble tribes, and the majority of the major Iraqi Shi'ite Imams are from noble tribes as well.
The previous speaker of the house was Mahmud ((Al-Mashhadani)), the future one will be a ((Al-Samara'i)). Both are Sunni noble tribes. Both speakers, in sucesssion. All the AUAB's - in succession, and most if not all of the Shi'ite Iraqi Imams, in succession are from noble tribes.
Both sides claim to be the direct descendants of Muhammad, the prophet. Both sides tacitly believe that they have a right to at least candidacy for Caliph.
The argument over the Caliphate is ongoing, even while the current Iraqi governmnet is in power. The noble tribes are at the center of that, and thus at the center of the insurgency (on both sides of the sectarian fence).
And yes, the noble tribes have been ignored. It's a sensitive subject for our Iraqi friends. However, 'Ali Al-Wardi discusses these issues with great frankness from a historical perspective in his book "Lamahat Ijtima'iya," which alas has not been translated into English. The names of the noble tribes have shown up over and over again throughout Iraqi history - but without knowing the context of why they are noble and why this has been and is still an important driver from a cultural perspective has and does inhibit us from understanding why certain phenomena such as insurgencies and sectarian violence occur. There is a depth to this that isn't applied by our huminters and our analysts across the board.
As Galula states in his books - it is best to listen to all members of your units, even measly former buck sergeants like me. I appreciate Jedburgh's rebuke - but just because I was a buck sergeant doesn't mean that I wasn't in a position of real responsibilty, and nor does it define anything about me except to those who can't think outside of the box.
-Tribeguy
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