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  1. #18
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    Now this is a GOOD QUESTION: Leaving aside issues of historical comparative law (which are not about to be resolved here), I do have a current events question: What is your opinion about the link between the Iraqi Al-Sadrs, from a tribal standpoint (if any), to Hez in Lebanon ?

    I'll expand on it with another question:

    What do Muqtada Al-Sadr, Baqir Al-Hakim, and Bahar Al-'Alum have in common?

    They are all from the ((Al-Musawi)) Tribe - a noble tribe that descends from Imam 'Ali, through Musa Al-Kadhim! I believe, but am not 100% sure, that Nasarallah is ((Musawi)) as well, if that is what you were referring to.

    Also, Muqtada Al-Sadr is pulling a page from Nasarallah's book, using former JAM elements as a charity arm to get political cred with the population. It is, of course, his only option now that he is exiled to "study" in Iran. Ayatallah Muqtada - now, that will be the day!

    And Steve, my database includes the Kurdish tribes that share presence in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq. Haven't study that section of it yet in any detail, but I'll get around to it.

    Right now I am comparing the overall tribal population of Ninewah province with that in Mosul. I already did the Kirkuk/Al-Ta'amim data compilation, and will sit back and think about the results after I do Mosul. Since Kirkuk is a serious bone of contention vis a vis Arabs and Kurds, I'd like to find the major tribal influences from both sides of the fence to see if I can make any solid assessments on how events in the large cities that surround Kirkuk affect it. Not sure what I am going to find yet, but that's the plan for today.

    After that, I am going to finish the rest of the provincial studies - keeping the noble tribe picture as part of it, just to keep tabs on the issue.



    I agree that it is not a viable mechanism of control - it's too fragmented. The fragmentation cuts both ways, though. It's to both our advantage as the counterinsurgent that doesn't know what they are, and since they are divided and prone to infighting, the potential threat seems small. Problem is there are pockets of extremism distributed throughout the sub tribes. I only have partial visibility on this - and I think it is in all of our interests to get some resolution on it, and keep it. There are more out there, and they have a tendency to be at or near the top of insurgent leadership hierarchy. they have political islamic cred just because of who they descend from in some circles.

    Also, its worth noting that the ((Al-Tikriti)) tribal hegemony lasted for more than 30 years underneath a Ba'athist banner - and according to Al-Rudhan's work, they are no more than 1.03% of the total tribal population (147 subtribes/14193 total subtribes in universe) according to Al-Rudhan's two volume set. I think that if one were to ask if the ((Al-Takarita)) were able to take power and rule in 1956, then the standard answer might have been that it "wasn't a viable means of control." However, they were organized and able to organize others fairly effectively.

    So, as for noble tribes, they aren't really organized, but they keep showing up in insurgent organizations at high levels. Regardless of whether or not we as westerners see their way as being a viable means of control, its not going to keep them from fighting, killing and dying for it along with whoever else they can get to do so. Just because we are there doesn't mean that the Iraq enterprise is going to succeed. And, just because we are going to leave doesn't guarantee that their grievances are going to be extinguished. We're just one of a long list of their gripes.

    V/r,

    Tribeguy
    Last edited by Jedburgh; 06-02-2009 at 01:54 AM.

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