Quote Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
One point I've made several times about the Pakistani tribal areas are that they more resemble colonies than parts of a whole "Pakistani" state. Pakistan sure treats them more like colonial possessions. If this view is correct, does it make any difference in terms of insurgency and COIN?
Absoulutely. It goes to both of the key elements of COIN: Goodness and Legitimacy.

If the populace does not view themselves primarily as "Pakistani," but rather as "Pashto" or some other tribal affiliation, then they will not grant/recognize the legitimacy of the Pakistani government over their tribal governments, more as a supplementary overlay rather than a primary ruling role. This affects very much both what they expect from the government and how they will react to engagement by the government.

This leads neatly into the concept of "goodness." Different expectations will absolutely color what a popualce perceives as acceptable governance or not. A COIN campaign waged in the Indus valley would be very different in nature and approach than one waged in the mountains. Different populaces and different perspectives and expectations of governance.


As to WILF's comments, I would simply say that you appear to be taking my comments as "absolutes." While I do believe that there are some fairly absolute truths rooted in general human nature that shape all insurgencies, application is alway a matter of degree tailored for the situation, culture and populace one faces. It appears quite clear that the majority of the Pashto populace does not desire Taliban rule and wants very much for that problem to go away. But I suspect they also are very suspect of how the Pakistani government is going to apply that help. If applied too heavy-handedly, it can have the negative effect of expanding the popular support for the Taliban among the Pashto. If done right, in a supporting effort to the tribal leaders in a manner sensitive to the culture of the region, it can be very effective.

I just don't see a history of cultural sensitivity here, so my concern is that out of our fear of failed states and loose nukes we may push the Paks to launch a campaign that is all thrust and no vector.

As to Ken's comments, I never said conventional guys can't do COIN, I said he was expressing a very conventional approach. To me at least, the difference is considerable.