Very interesting discussion here...
One which I will add to!
September to November 2007 I was on a team of four students (capstone course for my undergrad program) in which we were tasked with assessing poppy eradication methods which had been successful in a few areas, to determine their utility for the rest of Afghanistan. We were to examine what Governor Atta had done in the Balkh province (which was "officially" poppy-free at that point) and see if his methods were duplicatable. This assessment was for a gentleman in the General Counsel's office at the Pentagon.
By the way, before anyone gets concerned, this was an OSINT project and it was not classified once we presented our findings, so I can share it.
It was apparent quickly that there is no "cookie-cutter" solution. Too many complexities are involved, between ethnicities, geography/geology, weather patterns, tribal structures, not to mention a couple thousand years of history... So I retooled our Terms of Reference to encompass any and all solutions which can be interlinked, thereby multiplying the benefit of any one program.
On this team of students, we had two 21-year olds who had good research and analytical skills, but not much of a "global" outlook. The third member of the team was a 24-year old Marine Scout Sniper with two tours in Afghanistan...definitely an asset! And then there was me...over 40 and a type-A personality! We didn't officially have a team leader, but I filled the role...
Having been owned by horses for 30 years, I'm pretty conversant in agricultural matters, so I took that sector. The Marine was the obvious choice for Security. And I delegated the other two to Industry and Mineral/Petroleum Exploitation.
So having laid out the basic scenario, I thought I'd share with y'all our Executive Summary...
Executive Summary:
What viable poppy elimination and replacement programs are likely to succeed in Afghanistan?
Any successful opium poppy replacement program will likely include several integrated programs in the areas of agriculture, mineral and fuel deposit exploitation, the construction of infrastructure, and industrial manufacturing. It is highly likely that an interconnected set of programs will benefit both the local and national economies. The potential for success of any coordinated program is in direct proportion to the level of interdiction, border security, and prosecution of drug lords and corrupt officials. It is highly unlikely that eradication, the physical destruction of poppy crops, is sufficient for successful elimination of opium and sustainable replacement. One single replacement program, industry or crop is highly unlikely capable of replacing poppy, for the complexities of the situation, geography and culture require a multifaceted and interconnected solution.
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