http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Technol...147/story.html

As the Iranian government is faced with a growing insurgency, it is critical that they implement an effective COIN campaign immediately to restore order to the populace. This article about a Canadian firm that is using new technology to override efforts of the Iranian government to control information/communication access to the populace as a tried and true COIN TTP highlights a key theory of mine.

I contend that the only thing truly new in the world today is the speed and availablity of information, and that while this does not change the nature of warfare (hybrid, IW, global insurgency, etc) it does render obsolete many of the TTPs that have been developed for relatively successful COIN campaigns in the past.

As the government can no longer control information, I contend that the government must actually work much more diligently to identify and address the causation of the insurgency as well as the motivation triggering the current events.

Clearly the Iranians have the ability to simply crush the rebellion physically; or to take out Mousavi and attempt to quell the demonstrations; but while such actions may produce temporary success, they would likely only serve to exacerbate the true underlying causation of unrest.

I would recommend to the Iranian leadership to call for some trusted third-party organization to come in and oversee a re-count at a minimum, or an entire new election. This would address "motivation," but also show good faith in addressing "causation." I would advise them to pubicly announce a commitment to governmental review and reform under whomever is declared the ultimate winner, and to then follow-through on that promise.

Will they do this? I doubt it. Therefore a great strategem for the west would be to offer to provide such an unbiased third-party, subject to approval and acceptance by the government of Iran to serve this function.

If they say no, they look even worse to their own populace and grow even more vulnerable to popular change (without some commitment of western support to back the rebellion).

If they say yes, then that is good too; as at the end of the day we merely want to enable a peaceful evolution toward a better relationship between the government and the populace of Iran; and therefore form a better relationship with both as well.