Warnings that global oil production would soon peak (and then decline) have been around for decades and have been the subject of some debate.
Credible warnings about the threat of export decline have surfaced increasingly during the past two years but have attracted little attention.
Here is partial list of these warnings:

Jeffrey Brown is a Dallas-based petroleum geologist who developed the Export Land Model several years ago.
In October 07 he warned that "we should base our plans on the very real possibility of a rapid decline in world net oil exports."
His ELM and some related analyses may be examined here:
http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/export_land_model

In Sept. 07 Robert Hirsch (co-author of the Hirsch Report on peak oil) warned that a decline in exports could bite much more suddenly than the larger "peak oil" decline:
"But potentially overwhelming all else, considerations of resource nationalism posits an Oil Exporter Withholding Scenario, hastening the onset of decline and exaggerating world supply decline rates."
Hirsch elaborated on this during his presentation at the October ASPO-USA conference in Houston. His 28-minute presentation is available here (video):
http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?op...18&Item id=93

Also in Sept. 07 Jeff Rubin (Chief Economist at CIBC, on of Canada's chartered banks) warned of export decline during his presentation at the ASPO conference in Cork, Ireland.
Rubin went on to predict that Mexico will be unable to supply the USA with exports by 2012, but his warning about the disappearance of America's #3 supplier appears to have been met with complacency.
His report, "OPEC's Growing Call on Itself" is available here:
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_.../occrept62.pdf

In May 08 Neil King (Wall St. Journal) wrote a concise analysis entitled "Oil Exporters are Unable to Keep Up with Demand," available here:
http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2008/0...p-with-demand/

In July 08 a 40-page study was released by Chatham House in the UK. Entitled "Ending Dependence: Hard Choices for Oil Exporting States", their assessment is stark:
"Of the twelve countries in this study, oil production is in decline or at a plateau in three: Indonesia, Malaysia and Norway.
In a further seven countries, the plateau will be reached around 2010.
Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan will reach a plateau before 2020" (p. 35).
The study is available here:
http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/news/view/-/id/457/

I hope people will find these five studies to be of interest. I see no reason to doubt the credibility of the authors nor the reasonableness of their conclusions.

But this information surely does not fit with current political realities.
Here in Canada, energy security was not on the radar screen during last year's federal election campaign.
In the USA it is an issue, but only from certain angles and there is careful avoidance of the peak oil issue and these recent warnings re export decline.

There is never a hint about the domestic disorder which would surely result should anything seriously interfere with that steady flow of affordable imports.

Thanks for your interest.
-- rm