Energy Security

[Rick M]

Hi, Randy

One of the two documents which will be posted on EB is a bibliography of publicly-available studies which have been conducted by researchers from the military/security community (War Colleges, CNA, etc) on the issue of energy security.
The listing will identify those studies which address the issue of peak oil and which find it to be a credible near-term concern.

One item which I plan to include separately at the end (separately because it was done by the International Energy Agency, which of course is not part of the military/security research community) is the most recent World Energy Outlook (Nov. 08).

There is probably some merit in offering it now, since it really does not belong in that bibliography. Similarly with the Hirsch Report, yet both are so central to the issue, and both have such credibility, that they would surely be included in any serious analysis of the peak oil issue.

Here is what I intend to say about the WEO:

This WEO marks a significant departure from the IEA’s traditional confidence in future oil supply.
Its opening sentences state, “The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable…. “
It then warns of “dwindling resources in most parts of the world and accelerating decline rates everywhere (p. 3). The WEO calls for “an energy revolution” and concludes, “Time is running out and the time to act is now” (Executive Summary, p. 15).

This sudden tone of concern is confirmed by subsequent verbal statements made by IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol.

In a videotaped interview with George Monbiot, Birol states, “The reason we are asking for a global energy revolution is to prepare everybody for difficult days and difficult times. I think we should be very careful….”
This interview is available here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...george-monbiot

Despite this recent tone of concern and the evidence which the WEO presents, the IEA remains very reluctant to state that the peaking of global oil production (whatever combination of factors “cause” the constriction) will present some very serious challenges, that effective mitigation will require decades of cooperative effort, and that that the world appears to be most unprepared for this event.

To provide some context, it should be noted that only four years ago IEA Executive Director Claude Mandil referred to peak oil analysts as "doomsayers" and went on to say that "none of this is cause for concern."
But barely 1000 days later, the IEA has suddenly told the world that "time is running out...."
As I said previously, this issue is constantly evolving, perhaps nowhere more rapidly than at the IEA.

The complete WEO is 578 pgs and must be purchased.
The Executive Summary (15 pgs, no graphs) is available here:
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/do...es_english.pdf

There are two WEO graphs in particular which I would like to post here and which are highly illustrative, if I could only figure out how to do it (I am hopeless with computer stuff, much to my brother's amusement).