Pakistani politics (catch all)

[George L. Singleton]

David, thanks for posting the Brigadier's article.

What jumped out at me most was:

The likely hideouts are the Dawar area of North Waziristan, Upper Orakzai Agency and the Pakhtun areas of Balochistan. However, if the operations are conducted in both Waziristan agencies, than Zhob and other Pakhtun areas of Balochistan are going to be places where the militants will flee.

Two schools of thought on over advertising in the open the operations before begun in N. and S. Wazirstan:

1. To let the civilian population know to "get out of the way and out of the area" to lower collateral damage/deaths.

2. To warn the key leadership of al Qaida and the Taliban so they could seek shelter elsewhere while letting their men be killed in the future fighting.

Jedburgh, too, has had a series of very informative posts the last few days, in particular, in my opinion. I am too stupid to keep up the adroit, well informed useful info you guys seem to roll over and toss out casually.

All of you keep up the good information and experience sharing. I note a growing number of US company grade and early field grade join-ups on SWJ. This is very encouraging.

Also note a few, would like to see more, Canadians and down unders registering. The more the better.

What I would really like to see are some still serviing, perhaps too much to ask for, Pakistani and Afghan officers and NCOs offering their views and suggestions.

It would uniquely also be helpful to hear from a few regular Army officers in Iran on how they flush out and deal with al Qaida cells which I read of late are being rooted out.

Too, the Saudi Royal family officers currently serving as to how they are containing and controlling the Wahabbi terrorist training camps and schools inside Saudi Arabia.

My wish list could go on and on.

[davidbfpo]

A radical cleric, Sufi Mohammad, who brokered a failed peace deal in Pakistan's Swat valley has been arrested, officials say: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8169385.stm

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

A martial law firing squad?

[davidbfpo]

George,

I would suggest the very fact the cleric's arrest has been revealed means he will not "disappear" and there is no martial law in Pakistan. On reflection others have been arrested and have "disappeared". Arrested by who, ISI, police, para-military or Army?

What will be important is how long he is held and what he is charged with at court.

More details on his arrest, note he was reported to be in "protective custody" in May 2009 and was then released: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...etains_suf.php

davidbfpo

[JarodParker]

Possible good news from Pakistan. Hopefully the Pakistani government will support/monitor them so they don't get wiped out by the Taliban or become a rogue militia themselves.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090730/...kistan_militia

[George L. Singleton]

Perhaps a clear cut war fighting zone where this cleric was captured needs a fast court process as under martial law, shoot on sight, etc?

[davidbfpo]

Peter Oborne, one of the UK's best reporters IMHO, has been in Karachi, Pakistan's commercial capital and a huge city beset with problems:

In the last 60 years the population of Karachi has risen from 300,000 to nearly 20 million. The pressure for homes, water and food - compounded by high levels of unemployment - has lead to furious conflict between the rival ethnic groups, with around 1300 people killed in gangland violence last year.

His report is based on following an ambulance driver, employed by a charity and a shorter period with a police inspector, who states:

...at least 100 of his officers have been killed in the past year.

The title of the thread comes from his closing comment - worth fast forwarding to, if twenty five minutes cannot be spared.

The film clip on: http://www.channel4.com/programmes/u...ld/4od#3180510

The written summary is on: http://www.channel4.com/programmes/u...2011/episode-4

The links do work in the USA and a SWC viewer responded:

They should stop making cop shows about Americans and make cops shows about Karachi cops. That was something.

[Tukhachevskii]

There was also this short lived fly-on-the-wall documentary by Channel 4 (iirc) a few years ago called, appropriately enough, Karachi Kops

[carl]

The human material is there. Those two guys are worthy of all the best adjectives, brave, dedicated, noble even. For real. The question is, can Pakistan figure a way to allow men like that to rise and have broader influence?

That ambulance driver, a unprepossessing middle age man, has to be the coolest, most fearless guy for a 5 block radius. The traffic he drove in and the things he did in it were hair raising.

[blueblood]

Here is another example of a Karchi cop Amir Khan who is affectionately called Chulbul Pandey (A fictional cop from an Indian movie). This guy is really popular but I think he got transferred.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oDDA...eature=related

[cowboy14]

Yeah he is very popular throughout the south asia

[davidbfpo]

Moderator's Note

Given the crossover between Pakistani politics and the Pakistani military many posts could fit in either. This is the main thread for comments on Pakistani politics and for the Pakistani military refer to:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=8282

[davidbfpo]

Our occasional correspondent Hamid Hussain has provided a commentary (on attachment) on Pakistan's emerging political situation, notably the guided emergence of Imran Khan's political party and yes, the role of the military / ISI.

The title is my own and reflects some of Hamid's pessimism.

[omarali50]

This is an old post now, but may be of interest: http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...man-rises.html

Also see about more recent events: http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/12/...tan-what-next/

and http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/12/...down-in-kasur/

http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/12/...k-in-pakistan/

and on a lighter note: http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/12/22/don-zardari/

[omarali50]

and need I add...as usual an excellent post from Hamid Sahib. I wish the US just asks him instead of wasting money on Harvard educated "analysts" who confuse Pakistan with El-Salvador on a regular basis..

[Ken White]

The US consistently turns to Ivy League educated 'analysts' who confuse New Jersey with El Salvador. Heaven forbid we'd listen to anyone who actually lived there...

[carl]

and need I add...as usual an excellent post from Hamid Sahib. I wish the US just asks him instead of wasting money on Harvard educated "analysts" who confuse Pakistan with El-Salvador on a regular basis..

Omar: Hamid Sahib speaks of "a lot of pressure within the military from below especially from junior officers". From what I remember reading, some of the junior officers are restive because they want more overt support for the Islamists and an open break with the US. Is that more or less correct or are there other or different things?

[omarali50]

Omar: Hamid Sahib speaks of "a lot of pressure within the military from below especially from junior officers". From what I remember reading, some of the junior officers are restive because they want more overt support for the Islamists and an open break with the US. Is that more or less correct or are there other or different things?

I think that is exactly what Hamid sahib means. I would add that in all these matters it is very important (in my humble opinion) to avoid looking at these pressures as primary facts. GHQ has its own "think tanks" and it is not only subject to such pressures, it very systematically creates such ideas in the first place. It is indeed possible that the very top officers may on occasion wish to change policy A or B and may face grumbling from junior officers because said change is contrary to the narrative they have been taught all their life (two-nation-theory, Islamism, "national interest" being nuclear bombs, kashmir jihad and domination of Afghanistan, etc etc) but keep in mind:
1. Military discipline is still intact and it is very much possible for senior officers to dress up a U-turn in words that satisfy (or at least publicly shut up) Junior officers. (in the short term).
2. It is impossible to imagine that in 10 years GHQ could not have caused a gradual shift in opinion using the various levers at its disposal, IF that was the intent (long term).

And the same goes for politics. Anti-American or anti-Indian pressure is not a permanent god-given fact of life (except in a fringe, and that kind of thing happens in every country). It is cultivated and kept bubbling at whatever is considered "the optimum temperature". Not completely under control, but not as out-of-control as sometimes projected. That is also my main beef with "analysts" like Anatol Lieven. A lot of BS about devolution and grass-roots democracy is actually part of well thought out calculations about how to undermine political parties that threaten to disrupt the "proper" balance between the dominant military intelligence agencies and the political class.

See also: http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/12/...of-imran-khan/

[omarali50]

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-e...cle2814973.ece

[omarali50]

This post (and its links) about the recent resurgence of the "good jihadis" in Pakistan may be of interest: http://www.brownpundits.com/pakistan...fa-e-pakistan/