Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
Not necessarily. For example, the absence of any AQ attacks on US soil since 9/11 does not necessarily mean that such attacks have been deterred. They may no longer be necessary. Suppose (and I don't think it an unlikely supposition) that AQ's intention was to use the 9/11 attack to pull the US into an action in Afghanistan that could lead to a war of attrition. This would target the greatest military weakness of the US - lack of long-term political will - and create one of the few scenarios in which a military defeat for the US is a real possibility.

If this is the case, additional attacks on the US would be completely counterproductive: having initiated the war of attrition, AQ's task now is to wear down America's will to fight, and further direct attacks on the US would bolster and sustain that will.
Too often we focus on the wrong indicators and draw the wrong conclusions. Usually because we look at them based upon an understanding built from our experience and colored by what we want to see.

Certainly in politics perspectives may sometimes be cast in a light most favorable to the politician and shaped to tell his constituency what they want to hear.