I mostly agree with Wilf. Instead of trying to predict threats, what we really need is a robust and diverse intelligence collection and analysis system that will provide warning when and if threats emerge. As threats emerge, then resources can be allocated to the problem.

Unfortunately, the US intel system does not like to "waste" resources sustaining a diverse analysis and I&W capability. The money, promotions and benefits go to the high-visibility areas and the threat du jour. The policymaker and intelligence system's obsession with current intelligence is a result. Most analysts (including myself) are forced to spend most of their time on current intel instead of the research necessary to obtain a deeper understanding of an intelligence problem. It's probably my biggest complaint about our intel system.