What we really need is a better crystal ball

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Ken

My observation has been that our predictive capabilities are quite good.

The difficulty is that people in power will not listen to analysis that provide problems counter to their desires or understanding of what the problems should be.

Posted by AmericanPride

Maybe we need a brain trust not invested (i.e. compromised by its organizational interests) in the system. Kind of like a GAO for strategic thinking.

Seems you're both addressing the same issue. Maybe our predictive analysis isn't deeply flawed (though I remain suspect), but analysis without a political/business agenda (more F22s, more submarines, etc.) just doesn't get floor time.

There is little concensus on which nation-state presents the next serious threat, and even less consensus when we discuss where irregular warfare will trend to in the future, and then how we should prepare for it. We generally think we're going to be involved in more of these irregular warfare conflicts, and the irregular enemy "can be" very adaptive due to their small size and relatively non-existant bureaucracy. They can turn on a dime while we have to turn on a quarter (or a 50 cent piece). We evolve, then they evolve (if they're not defeated). The concern is when we evolve it generally means evolving the entire Army (or another service), which can cost expotentially more than our foe is spending. The EFP is a perfect example, I was playing with field expedient shape charges in the late 70's, and now that concept has evolved into an EFP, which is still a relatively cheap technology compared to the expense of uparmoring the entire force. It won't be too long until they find a way to defeat our new armor and new vehicles, then at great expense we'll adapt to the new threat. It would be nice to get ahead of the threat, instead of reacting to it, thus the desire for a better crystal ball.

The beter crystal ball is one piece, but assuming we had a better crystal ball, it won't mean squat if we don't have a military and industrial process that can adapt quickly. Adpation can take place in many ways, training, education, technology, organizational change, etc. What has changed and it can't be denied, is the speed of change. Will be able to adapt quick enough in the future?