Is an insurgent an insurgent?

[Ken White]

The problem I am facing is that a COIN-strategy will not be implemented if the opposing force is not defined as an insurgent.

Then don't implement a 'COIN strategy' -- what ever that means.

If the enemy is not an insurgent because he is not seeking to overthrow the state, what is he then when the result is the same?

He may not be your enemy but you'll likely make him one, thus Wilf's Accidental Guerrilla quip.

What State is he trying to overthrow? The Government of Afghansitan that we created without thinking it through? Will the result "be the same" or will it merely be something different than WE envision?

Serious questions: If they are successful, will the result really be the same? Are they trying to overthrow or do they just want more local autonomy? What is their likelihood of success? If it's better than 40% or so, is it possible that we need to relook our goals? What IS our goal?

Let me restate something I said above: "Then don't implement a 'COIN strategy'..." Turn that effort by said locals to assist your goals. Develop an alternative approach that avoids creating more hostiles and instead furthers your goals -- which you may have to modify from earlier designs. That's Plan A.

One should always have a Plan B. Plan B will probably entail fighting them whether you use a 'COIN strategy' or not.