Pakistani internal security (catch all)

[George L. Singleton]

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/...-tatters-qs-03

Take a minute to read the entire DAWN article.

As is all to often found in many Pakistani media stories, this one has built in contraditions.

One the one hand "the madrassah curicculum reform" program, funded in the background by the US through the Pak government is or has failed.

On the other hand due to current success fighting the Taliban the same school program has had modest success, but may be gaining wider acceptance by the poor and moderate madrassah miiddle class students.

The one subject I am concerned about deals with computer science. As an acquired skill it cuts both ways, against the Taliban/AQ but also useful for and to the terrorists and al Qaida who still recruit from these madrassahs.

[davidbfpo]

The cited article comes as no surprise, for a host of reasons; I'd be curious whether the US $ aid was paid over to Pakistan in view of the lack of success and so where is the money now?

I am aware that UK-funded madrassah reform packages have been announced and that UK-based, Pakistani groups have tried too.

Strikes me as an example of "top down" action, rather than assisting "bottom up" with matching funds (on varying ratios) and encouraging dialogue. The clamour for wider and better education in the developing world is well known, somehow I doubt if lessons learnt from that affected US & UK governemnt thinking.

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

The below partial quote is from today's date, July 18 GLOBAL HUJRA ONLINE. Understand these statements are unconfirmed and could be sheer Taliban propaganda. Spreading false tales is common even in peacetime among Pakhtuns.

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6466

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...6712#post76712

Saturday, July 18, 2009
FC officials deny report
(FC -= FRONTIER CORP, Pakistan Army)
By Delawar Jan

PESHAWAR: Taliban militants resurfaced in parts of the Buner district during the last several days, carrying out armed patrol on roads besides establishing a checkpoint in Pacha Killay, locals told The News on Friday.

The reports about the reappearance of the militants emanated from the district at a time when the people, displaced by the Taliban arrival and the subsequent military operation, are returning to their homes.

“My brother had gone back to his home after the start of the IDPs’ return, but the situation there was still precarious and the Taliban were active, which forced him to leave Buner again,” a resident of a village near Pir Baba said, requesting anonymity.

Locals said the militants had infested numerous parts of the Buner district. “The Taliban arrived in great numbers to Kalpani, which is a densely populated area, and Chagharzai. They terrified the people when they brazenly carried out armed patrol on a four-kilometre strip on the Kalpani-Chagharzai Road a couple of days back,” another resident of Buner, who also requested not to be identified, said.

He contended that during the operation, the Taliban militants had suffered meagre casualties and their numerical strength remained intact. The displaced people coming back, he apprehended, would not be safe there and they could migrate again. “They are moving back to the district, because they could not pass time in camps. They just want to be at their homes in this scorching heat and unfavourable conditions,” he argued.

The locals from Pacha Killay said the militants had established a checkpoint at a stream between Pacha Killay and Balo Khan a few days back, where they checked the people to single out government officials or their opponents.

[Bob's World]

Physical terrain in such a competition is irrelevant. It is the Populace that must be gained and retained...

[George L. Singleton]

With what I knew myself to be absurdly premature return of Displaced Persons we should have known this was a likely event.

The good news is I hear from individuals that IDP returnees are small in numbers. The masses of IDPs are not being encouraged officially to return for several more months, despite games the Taliban and al Qaida are now playing through the local media and world press.

Too many Pak and world media fools undermine our allies the Pak military and thus our total war efforts with their yellow journalist sensationalism to "create" radical news headlines.

WW II news media censorship would help Pakistan and NATO, too, on both sides of the Durand Line.

[George L. Singleton]

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News....cat=le&nid=733

I actually had fun writing this letter I am so tired of this old retired Pakhtun Police Inspector in Peshawar who is forever disloyal to the nation of Pakistan, no matter who is their President or what party is in power. His reason for consistent negativity is a major reason why we have so much trouble subduing much of Northern Pakistan, old and young alike, educated and uneducated, too many Pakhtuns want to break away from Pakistan and create another welfare state to feed off the UN, the World Bank, and the IMF so "they" can line their pockets.

Fortunately as evidenced by numerous recent Pakistani military obits (some are on: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=6544 ), there are a growing number of loyal Pakhtun officers in the Pakistani military toda, and yesterday, who are loyal to home, province, and to the nation of Pakistan.

To be clear this retired Pakhtun (Peshawar) police inspector has for years since 9/11 been pro-Taliban in his letters to the media over there...and the FRONTIER POST, being the only Pakhtun owned English daily in all of Paksitan, of course prints what he writes to them, sometimes every day!

GeorgeSingleton

[George L. Singleton]

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...7544#post77544

Pakistanis of several tribes, particulary the Bangash tribe, now in fighing zones of N. Waziristan have fled for safety into Afghanitan. Please read posting #4 from 8/2/09 Global Hujra Online to see for yourselves.

[George L. Singleton]

Reports are circulating as of Aug. 6 that Pakistan's chief Taliban Leader, Baitullah Mehsud, in Waziristan, was killed in a missile strike of about two days ago; (added to illustrate) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...d-is-dead.html

Separeately on Aug. 6 the elders of the Massud tribe visited the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, and met with the Deputy Speaker of the lower house and with some Pakistani national senators...one senator from Waziristan accompanied the visiting Massud tribe elders.

Amazingly, the Massud tribe is seeking a truce and cessation of attacks on them by the Pakistani military; this is the sort of clap trap "on again off again" attempts which only allows the Taliban to regroup and rearm.

I posted on SWJ yesterday, Aug. 5 an article supporting the fact that other Massud tribe folks have fled into Helmand Province in Southern Afghanistan, and three options for discussion of what these Massud folks could actually be up to. (Added original link: http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...7544#post77544)

Am wondering if others are unable or unwilling due to current events to discuss these current events topics?

[davidbfpo]

It will be interesting to see if confirmation comes for Baitullah Mehsud's death, although I am not confident it will; e.g. Rashid Rauf's death was never confirmed.

Secondly, how will Pakistanis regard the drone attack? Previously discussed on: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=6801

I wonder how the Pakistani state / military are explaining this, after all he is primarily their enemy.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

The BBC citing local people is reporting his death: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8188859.stm Note Pakistanis are seeking confirmation on the ground, even DNA; plus a successor is being chosen.

There are five US media reports on: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=8036

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Friday, August 7, 2009 -- 7:20 AM ET
-----

Taliban Leader in Pakistan Is Dead, His Aides Say

Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of Pakistan's fearsome Taliban
militia, was killed Wednesday in a C.I.A. missile strike, two
Taliban fighters said on Friday, adding that a meeting was
taking place to determine who among his top deputies would
replace him.

Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com?emc=na

[George L. Singleton]

I hope these GLOBAL HUJRA articles on the Khyberwatch inks help explain some of what is happening in Pakistan. I have included the biography of the leftist author of second article as it gives his background.

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7415

http://www.chowk.com/writers/2100

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7417

[davidbfpo]

So say militants in the FATA, according to the BBC report: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8191105.stm

So we await a tape recording arriving and being broadcast. By denying his death the Pakistan Taliban have set themselves a dilemma; a reminder how communications now have impacted.

davidbfpo

[Bob's World]

Senior leaders tend to take themselves too seriously...and thereby ascribe the same self-importance to the leadership of their opponents.

Querry: How deep into the leadership chain at the Pentagon would you have to cut in order to have a negative effect on US military operations?
1 deep?
10?
100?
1000?

Query two:
As you are chopping away at the top of the pyramid with no measureable affect on performance of the organization; what affect are your actions having on the motivation of the organization and its populace base of support to continue the fight???


The real question isn't if he is dead or not; the real question is what is the relative effect of conducting such operations in the first place.

[davidbfpo]

Query two: As you are chopping away at the top of the pyramid with no measureable affect on performance of the organization; what affect are your actions having on the motivation of the organization and its populace base of support to continue the fight??? The real question isn't if he is dead or not; the real question is what is the relative effect of conducting such operations in the first place.

From a faraway armchair and mindful that less deaths are preferable, primarily because of the local Pashtun culture i.e. revenge and status, my answers are and not in priority:

1) As a symbol and dangerous leader his removal is justified. Primarily with it's local effect and on Pakistan. Symbolism aside little effect to the USA etc (IMHO the White House spokesman should have stayed silent).

2) Yes, new leadership will appear and have to adapt further their lifestyle.

3) From my knowledge of Kashmiri-Pakistanis here they prefer to stand on the sidelines and await a sign who is stronger. That is where the impact could / should be on the flow of support, recruitment and legitimacy.

4) The action extends the window of opportunity for Pakistan to act in the FATA; in some ways following the Imperial strategy - harsh punishment.

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

Ironic that British Commonwealth status allows some of the actual terrorists more travel access from their native areas into UK and elsewhere worldwide in the Commonwealth, especially including Canada.

[William F. Owen]

Querry: How deep into the leadership chain at the Pentagon would you have to cut in order to have a negative effect on US military operations?
1 deep?
10?
100?
1000?

Perhaps a better comparison is how many of a deployed SF A-TEAM would you have to kill for them to loose their effectiveness.

Killing enemy leaders works. It may not be highly effective, but I cannot think of any good reason to pass up the opportunity. Also from an intelligence perspective identifying and tracking enemy leaderships, usually brings a host full of other goodies.

[jcustis]

Killing enemy leaders works. It may not be highly effective, but I cannot think of any good reason to pass up the opportunity.

By this statement Wilf, are you saying that going after leadership is always worth the squeeze, even if it turns out to not be highly effective?

At what point is a leader's death worth 1, 10, 100 civilian casualties? Not trying to apples and orange this issue, but this does go back to a potential collateral damage issue that I think always needs to be thought of.

[Ken White]

At what point is a leader's death worth 1, 10, 100 civilian casualties? Not trying to apples and orange this issue, but this does go back to a potential collateral damage issue that I think always needs to be thought of.

How can you ever ascertain that, other than those who were killed in the specific attack, casualties are due to that death or action?

If you mean solely those who are nearby and thus who may be or are killed due to the attack on a specific individual, is not that attack made considering the likelihood of those casualties and thus a determination of the cost / benefit ratio is made by he or she who orders the attack? If that is the case, is that not a judgment call on the part of the order issuer based on the particulars of each case and thus subject to situational variance? Can such judgments be wrong? Surely -- but does that eliminate the need to make the call, sometimes incurring that cost, sometimes passing the opportunity by?

Please note I used 'situational variance' and probably too many words, not METT-TC. I expect an Atta-Boy.

[jcustis]

Ken, I was thinking more on the line of civilians killed as a result of the specific attack. Seems we go for a lot of precision in these things, but if killing a leader may not be effective, as Wilf comments, why do it? I'm asking that in a rhetorical way I suppose, because I do agree that the decisions do need to be made, and I know the calculations do happen.

And I do firmly believe that we need to target leaders...no wafting about that.