North Korea: 2012-2016

[Dayuhan]

That's why we need to be thinking in terms of 'dual use.' Policies that would be good in their own right, but could also shape things in this part of the world to our benefit. This, incidentally, would take care of the unilateral part, as we can advertise the first use to our allies.

I don't think advertising policies to our allies is going to accomplish much. They don't listen to the advertising, they observe the policies and reach their own conclusions. Policies that are "good in their own right" will be those aimed at promoting interests that we have in common with both regional allies and regional rivals. Fortunately, where North Korea is concerned there is a considerable overlap between US interests and those of the immediate region.

Are you (or the 6 parties) really going to be willing or able to stop anyone from donating food? NGO's? Anyone else who wants to cultivate their 'good guy, anti-American' image?

Not many parties have shown much interest, and an NGO couldn't accomplish much more than a token gesture. The key leverage point is likely to be fuel, which is not likely to be provided in sufficient quantity by a "spoiler" power.

The first step for North Korea, therefore, would be to fix these agricultural problems. I don't know too much about their source, but letting in foreign experts to survey the problem, and heeding their recommendations - however politically incorrect - may be a good start. These advisors could also confirm that any aid we decide to give them actually makes it to the proper places. NK can't be expected to produce goods for foreign trade when their traditional systems of domestic production are dysfunctional.

Their primary agricultural problem is very similar to that of the south: not much arable land and a short growing season. The south of course compensates with an industrial economy that is profitable enough to let them buy food from abroad.

Certainly advisers could be offered, and they could probably offer some good ideas... but again, what makes you think, given the attitude of the current regime, that the offer would be accepted?

But that's what the N Koreans can do, and what they will decide on their own time. The bigger question is what we can do, now.

The answer is not much beyond what we are already doing. It's not a question with any easy answers.