Stu,
You probably couldn't have picked a more challenging or controversial topic
Hopefully John Fishel will contact you, he has completed some great work in this area.
It seems you're posing your questions to measure support for either the insurgency or the State, but in most, if not all, cases this is misleading. We always dumb things down, but as Einstein once wrote, back things as simple as you can, but no simpler. In most cases there will be more than one insurgent group (though they may assist one another, just go back to WWII where the non-communist and communist partisans would cooperate at times, put knife in each others backs at other times, and the same was true of the Afghan resistance against the Soviets). Took at a stab at your current metrics, my comments in red. I'll try to add some suggestions later.
Indicators suggesting increased support for Insurgency:
1. Legitimacy of host government
Does this always matter? If it is a war of identity based on race or religion between two our more groups can a government be legitimate?
2. Establishment of counter government and services Good, what are your indicators?
3. Level of anti-Western sentiment Ugh? This may or may not play a role, it doesn't play much of a role in many Sub-Saharan African conflicts
4. Identification with a global Muslim nation Maybe you need to re-title your thesis as Islamic based insurgencies?
5. Unrest and violence This only indicates the phase of the insurgency, not the level of support
6. Strength and support of local insurgencyThis is what you're trying to measure?
7. Degree of political control by sectarian actors By insurgent or state actors?
Indicators measuring Civil COIN success against an insurgency:
1. Popularity of insurgency Not all will agree with me, but the insurgents don't have to be popular to be successful, just the best bad option, much like the Taliban when they took over Afghanistan initially.
2. Competent/Accountable host government involved in reconstruction Reconstruction may or may not be required, if you nip the insurgency in the bud before there is major damage this is a mute issue
3. Popular Government Good luck, popularity only lasts through the honey moon period, plus the government is always supported by those who benefit from it, and opposed by those who feel the government is negatively impacting their life
4. Economic Development Maybe, I still haven't a seen study that proves this theory
5. Democratic Government Absolutely not, and in some cases this will trigger an insurgency
6. Level of Social-political groups' involvement in reconstruction
7. Security improvements
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