New Guidance on Counter-Insurgency

[Fuchs]

....and there's the rub. How many platoons or squads do you want to put in how many villages? 24 Hour security requires 2-3 shifts. What size of population is worth a platoon? Do you protect every compound? Are you being successful if the Taliban can only kill 30 civilians a month? The real problem with the "POP-COIN" approach is that you are making a promise you can't keep. The Taliban can far more easily keep their promise to go on killing he infidels.

I keep telling that to people for maybe two years now.

My interpretation of the whole affair is that the "establish security" crowd thinks of magic, for there's a huge black box in their reasoning.

Problem - black box - security established

It's the old rule; those who attempt to defend everything defend nothing. Old Frederick already knew that 250 years ago, why is it so difficult to grasp today? Ego?

The Spanish cannot prevent bomb strikes of ETA in their own country for decades. How should that work in Afghanistan? What's the troopsopulation ratio? One soldier who leaves the fortified bases per village?

ISAF will never manage to do the equivalent of the police of Naples providing a witness-protection programme for the whole population of Southern Italy.

Maybe the problem is simply that ego prevents people from accepting their lack of power, so they adopt an illusion and follow a route that at least promises them to be powerful enough to handle their problem.