Quote Originally Posted by omarali50 View Post
...I am going to stick my neck out and make some predictions (as an amateur with nothing to lose):

1. Af-pak is a cash cow...There is also a lot of US prestige and credibility at stake (such things do exist). Then there is the bureaucratic inertia of the US establishment... keep the US in Afghanistan doing recognizably similar things to what it is doing right now, for at least 2 more years.
Probably correct. I think you have the timing about right as well -- I'd note that US domestic politics also intrude on the timing...
2. ... 0ne really big attack in India or the US and all bets are off. No prediction.
I'd add Europe as well.
3. ... The US will stabilize a near-workable Afghan govt enough to make a legitimate drawdown in 5 years (not a Saigon embassy helicopter scene)...Wishful thinking?
Probably not. Pretty close to right, I'd say, though I might go with "...five years -- or less."