Quote Originally Posted by Pol-Mil FSO View Post
The elites by and large seem to share the American public's belief that there is a magic bullet or at least an obvious answer for any problem. They just do not seem to be able to come to grips with the idea that some problems can only be addressed by looking for the least damaging of a set of disagreeable options, or that there may not even be a viable solution (e.g. peace in the Middle East).

I also see a disturbing inability to "connect the dots." Outside of a small minority, does anyone understand that the United States became and remains the most powerful nation in the world through past and present pursuit of deliberate policies and exercise of power and influence? Have any of the withdrawal advocates examined the possible second and third order consequences of a U.S. withdrawal or even retrenchment in Afghanistan? I have not seen any efforts to lay out a strategically literate and intellectually credible cost and benefit analysis for withdrawal from Afghanistan.
You are right about there not being any substantive writing about what would happen if we did, or how we should go about it. I think most advocates of the position, or people that are at least skeptical about the strategic logic of the occupation, assume that any fallout from a withdrawal would be mild compared to what seems likely to happen: it will cost more and more, drag on and on, and in the end when we finally do withdraw the government will be less than stable, and viewed as less than legitimate. That is not a presumption I want to make, but alas I lack the time (and professional standing) to publish an authoritative analysis of this problem (that anybody would publish). Nonetheless I think it was a war of choice from day 1, but we are there now and I will agree that there needs to be an (all options on the table) appraisal of what we should do.

I think the Clash accurately describes my view. "If I go there will be trouble and if I stay it will be double." Combat rock baby...