Hi Bob,
Tricky. My gut guess is that a general withdrawal of NATO / US troops would lead to a complete destruction of the current government and its replacement by a more autocratic form of the old Taliban regime. Again, pure gut guessing would put the DP population at 2+ million followed by a renewal of the older civil war and ~i1 million+ casualties over the next 5 years. The propaganda effect would be on the same order or higher as the retreat from Vietnam (probably higher).
Secondary effects would include increasing attacks against US / Western presence in the Horn of Africa, Nigeria and several other places, with a growing civil unrest in Western Europe and an increasingly radicalized youth population there. Back home in the States, I would expect an increasing amount of isolationism as well as an increased assault on individual civil liberties.
Then again, some people do consider me to be a pessimist .
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