Hi Bob,

Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
BL, this country was hard broke and in Civil War when we arrived; its far better off in that regard now. Also, once we leave, the majority motivation for resistance to the government goes with us; as it is largely a resistance movement more than a revolutionary one.

Thoughts?
Tricky. My gut guess is that a general withdrawal of NATO / US troops would lead to a complete destruction of the current government and its replacement by a more autocratic form of the old Taliban regime. Again, pure gut guessing would put the DP population at 2+ million followed by a renewal of the older civil war and ~i1 million+ casualties over the next 5 years. The propaganda effect would be on the same order or higher as the retreat from Vietnam (probably higher).

Secondary effects would include increasing attacks against US / Western presence in the Horn of Africa, Nigeria and several other places, with a growing civil unrest in Western Europe and an increasingly radicalized youth population there. Back home in the States, I would expect an increasing amount of isolationism as well as an increased assault on individual civil liberties.

Then again, some people do consider me to be a pessimist .