AP: General calls for more Afghanistan troops

[John T. Fishel]

Ken, I suspect you are right that most post WWII wars have been characterized by meeting engagments including the war in El Salvador - which is where I'm going with this.

By1987, the ESAF, govt, and the US had developed a holistic COIN strategy that included political and economic reform and development - the development strategy had evolved from the 1983-84 National Plan to Unidos Para Reconstruir 85 - 87 to Municipios en Accion after 87; from centralized phased to decentrralized. The corresponding military strategy had three parts:
1. Protect infrastructure - a prime target of the FMLN - which also meant protecting the population because the infrastructure was located where they lived. This aspect of the strategy involved the most troops but was limited to regular brigades and miilitary detachments and Civil Defense (local militia) units.
2. 24/7 patrols by Immediate Reaction Bn in areas of FMLN concentration characterized by meeting engagements. The objective was to keep the FMLN off balance and constantly on the move. Since these bn were operating in thirds - one third in the field, one third recovering, one third preparing to go back - they were rested compared to the guerrillas.
3. Intel targeted operations by the national Special Operations Group (GOE) and similar operations by brigade long range patrol elements focused on specific identified concetrations of FMLN leaders and fighters.

Together this national pol-econ-mil strategy won the war. Clearly, El Salvador is NOT Afghanistan or Iraq but we can certainly learn and adapt that which is appropriate. It is also useful to note that it took between 8 and 10 years to get all elements of the strategy in place. It is equally important that the big picture really was not clear to any single individual at the time. I never heard the military strategy described as I just described it by anybody - US or ESAF - while I was in country conducting the Combined ESAF Assessment (87-88) and I was talking with the MOD, the C3, the US Ambassador, and the MILGP commander along with the Southcom J3 who headed the team. Nevertheless, that is what was actually happening on the ground.

Cheers

JohnT

[Surferbeetle]

Together this national pol-econ-mil strategy won the war. Clearly, El Salvador is NOT Afghanistan or Iraq but we can certainly learn and adapt that which is appropriate. It is also useful to note that it took between 8 and 10 years to get all elements of the strategy in place. It is equally important that the big picture really was not clear to any single individual at the time. I never heard the military strategy described as I just described it by anybody - US or ESAF - while I was in country conducting the Combined ESAF Assessment (87-88) and I was talking with the MOD, the C3, the US Ambassador, and the MILGP commander along with the Southcom J3 who headed the team. Nevertheless, that is what was actually happening on the ground.

John/Dr. F/Sir,

As a fellow CA-bubba I recognize parts of your pol-econ-mil strategy from my time in Mosul, and saw some old echos of the El Salvador fight during a VETRETE there. During OIF 1 in Mosul we were able to reach large numbers of the populace and engage through the pol-econ-mil spectrum. As a result of this we reaped the benefits resulting from a greater mass of combined numbers (US & Iraqi) working to stabilize the area. My observation was that both US and Iraqi cultures were committed to centralized control however...later that summer de-bathification and disbanding the Army were some pretty serious below the belt shots to what we were doing...security deteriorated and the pol-econ side followed. There were still some older FMLN warriors around whom I bumped into during my visit to El Salvador. The FMLN had a distinct vision of themselves but they were peacefully pushing the pol-econ side of things in the small area that I observed. Peaceful integration is a worthy goal and I see the outcome as a success.

Mike F,

Darwinian competition analogies and riffs from ecology, business, and calculus may also be of use when considering our way forward. Plants are slower and easier to watch than animals. Plants fight by being optimized for certain conditions, growing larger than their competitors so that they can gather more nutrients & water, minimize their competitor’s access to nutrients & water, and produce more phytotoxins which inhibit the growth of competitors. Plants also work within ecosystems through such strategies as symbiosis and succession. Marketing teaches systematic examination of an organization’s internal environment, a customer’s environment, and the external environment to include competitors in order to look for and act upon advantages. Described here in a few short sentences it is very difficult to convey the benefits of understanding aspects of ecology and business and then applying them to our fight. Nonetheless those two subjects have been of use to me in my small sphere of influence and I highlight them for your consideration as we consider how to apply our calculus experiences to break things up into small manageable pieces and examine them for slope changes and areas under the curve, sometimes across several dimensions...while thinking about the hope and promise of the first sentence of my diffy q book: "This book is about how to predict the future." Perhaps we can describe the way forward with cobb-douglas demand functions and optimization strategy’s in partnership with our old standby, wielders of chicken bones?

[John T. Fishel]

To me, the ultimate success of the El Sal strategy was the election last year of an FMLN president and his peaceful assumption of office. I saw this foreshadowed in a 2000 conference in El Sal where FMLN and aRENA legislators had forged friendships and working relationships.

On decentralization: Amb Ed Corr was the father of the MEA plan that decentralized development - at least on the US side. In his article on mil-mil contacts in Low Intensity Conflict & Law Enforcement (vol 10 # 2) John Waghelstein who commaned the first big Milgp in 82-83 and was godfather of the original national plan, credits MEA with being the right approach.

Me, with my CA hat, am a strong advocate of local level development planning. Villagers really do know what they need better than the central govt.

Cheers

JohnT

[MikeF]

Boards packed up as I'm waiting to PCS.

Surferbeetle- I think I ran myself in circles discussing things w Ken last night so I'm gonna have to hold off a couple of days before trying to process the Darwin analogy. I've studied evolutionary stable system and how animals compete for natural resources, but I haven't really looked in to the stuff you posted.

v/r

Mike