David:

Anne Marlowe, writing in Forbes (Sep. 3, 2009), writes a piece (A Humane Afghan City) ostensibly on real estate development in Mazar-i-Sharif---emerging "New Towns" and gated communities for the affluent.

In that article, she cites Afghan Ministry of Finance figures that the share of agriculture is 30%, industry 28% and services as 39%, and seeks to dispel the notion that Afghanistan is a population of tiny rural villages:

"There's a popular notion that most Afghans live in tiny villages, but the population may be as much as 50% urban now, due to the push-pull of years of drought and superior urban job opportunities created by rapid economic growth. Farming is still the livelihood of most Afghans, but other activities are now contributing more to GDP. According to Ministry of Finance adviser Dallas Newby, the share of agriculture in the overall economy is just 30%, while industry provides 28% and services 39%. "

She is citing the urban/rural pop stats National Settlement Programme/UN Habitat Report (April 2009) from the Ministry of Urban Development. In that report, they note the results of the continued pattern of urbanization---mostly in informal urban settlements created to serve the rush of urban migration resulting from refugee movements, including from drought.

This pattern of "rural flight" to the cities is very typical of the Middle East and Asia, and, in part, exacerbated in conflict areas. Conflict aside, drought, and other rural hardships, always serve as an independent driver for what has been called the "ruralization" of cities in these areas---highly unstable informal settlements springing up to accommodate a largely rural and uneducated farm flight population. The rates of shift, as much as 5-10% percent, really accelerate during conflicts, and, as with distorted economies like Afghanistan's where such large percentage of the economy is preoccupied by international aid.

David, I absolutely agree that the US should seek to avoid urban conflict if possible, but, to some extent, we are applying the law of the hammer rather than seeking tools appropriate to the problems that actually exist in the conflict zone.What happens if, two years from now, Afghanistan is solidly 60% urban (as the rate and projections suggest), with Sadr Cities everywhere, and we are still chasing around the mountainsides.

We know from Sadr City (and Pakistan) that these rural slums are a substantial breeding ground for dissenters of all types. Do we wait for a Sadr to emerge, and then, all of a sudden, discover our selves in a very much more serious urban conflict setting?

Demographics may not be destiny, but major population trends will run over any of our multi-year "strategies" that do not recognize them.

Steve