The war (GWOT) is over? No.
Sitting inside The Beltway and probably Whitehall such assessments and "spin" may persaude a few. They are horribly IMHO optimistic and rely too much on "good news" only.
AQ has a powerful narrative that appeals to a minority of Muslims - so much that they are willing to volunteer, die, give support etc. That same narrative and Western policies, let alone actions, can impact on Muslims who would prefer a less active role. Has the narrative been undermined by suicide attacks? Yes - as clearly shown in Jordan, after the hotel attacks and no - as some feel it is the weapon of the weak.
If you approach AQ as being a standard bearer or a media outlet, rather than an established military force or a terrorist mastermind and controller - it can look very different.
Then add in the 'Accidental Guerilla' factor and you still have a threat, they have the intention, maybe not always the capability, but they continue to strive to succeed.
Can AQ still get money and recruits? Yes. Are they all in the FATA and other delightful places? No, as the original post showed some are in the "backyard" and can appear in un-expected places, numerous examples exist. Was AQ ever a corporation that needed lots of money to exist? No, I've seen open source estimates from US$30m to US$120m per annum.
What is IMHO more interesting are questions like: what happened to all the veterans of Afghanistan (Soviet era) and other conflicts? Figures in the tens of thousands were bandied about, for example those who fought in Bosnia. Where have they gone? Yes, older now, maybe dead and a host of reasons. Their decisions to exit the active or supportive role(s) need explanation. Was it a moral choice?
Why have analysts started to see this decline in AQ? I have read very little of substance, anyone here know of references to learned articles etc? Yes, I will accept those from within The Beltway and Whitehall.
davidbfpo
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