Hi Wilf,
Bein' in a somewhat picky mood since the seminar I came up to the university for got cancelled with no notice, I do want to make a couple of observations.... Sorry, Wilf, it's just me taking out frustrations
Steam power - 1687 in England with the Newcomen Engine, 177r with the Watts;
"new" weapons - breechloaders, simple design first produced in 1774 (I think or thereabouts) and mass deployed by the Prussians in the 1860's.
Railways - 1827 in the UK
Telegraph - 1847 (I think; this is off the top of my head) with the first oceanic cable in 1857
If they bloody well didn't have it down by the end of the 19th century, they should have all been taken out and shot as hopeless incompetents!
We have to extrapolate beyond "certainty" because the only thing certain is that we don't have it perfect - isn't that an old military saying ?
I choose airpower as the analog, but I could have also pointed to the armour debates on the 1920's as well, or the debates over crossbows and longbows back in the 14th century. The point I was trying to make with that analog was that it is at the start of the familiarity curve.
So, knowledge without understanding? I think there is a really good warning lesson there .
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