Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
Based on the Glaser link, a 20 MT attack (in theory) would take out 100% of Iran's population - and much more, depending on the weather conditions at the time of the attack.
That's completely unrealistic.
Iran is too huge.

That presentation uses the Bravo test (15 Mt) as an example, which covered a much smaller area with lethal radiation.
I gotta admit that said test was a poor test, though. It was done over an atoll and therefore not able to maximize radiation output because of limited contact of the fireball with the ground.

Nevertheless; Iran is too large.

Even a large quantity of small nuclear weapons amounting to a total of 20 Mt would not even approach 100% lethality.


By the way; the use of nuclear weapons in the Near/Mid East by any regional power would probably lead to its extermination.
The French, British, Pakistani and Indians could very well decide that the survival of no such state with a proven readiness of using nukes against cities (=genocide) could be tolerated.
An immediate domestic overthrow of the government might be the only chance of survival.