Germany - terrorism/military operations/America

[Surferbeetle]

From the Economist, 17 September 2009, Germany's election: A change of partners?

SAARLAND, the smallest German state without the excuse of being just a city, is a thumbnail caricature of Germany. It was here, among the woods and hills, that Goethe in 1770 claimed to discover that “passion for reflection on economic and technical matters” that occupied much of his life. For decades the thick coal seams underneath it made Saarland a pawn in the power-games of Germany and France. And because of that history, the sort of industry that Germany is known for—cars, steel and machines—looms even larger in its economy than in the rest of the country.

Yet the election will not be a coronation. The main choice voters face is whether to extend Ms Merkel’s cranky partnership with the SPD or to heed her plea for a change of coalition: she would rather govern with the smaller Free Democratic Party (FDP). That would not be a trivial change. The SPD and FDP stand almost at opposite poles of Germany’s political spectrum. The SPD preaches “solidarity”, which entails strong worker protection, minimum wages and robust social welfare. The FDP champions “freedom”, which goes along with sharply lower taxes, less regulation and friendliness to private enterprise. Ms Merkel ’s CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, stand uneasily in the middle. All four accept the tenets of Germany’s “social market economy”. Both the Social Democrats and the Liberals have mellowed, which means that the next government is unlikely to bring in radical change, no matter what its makeup. But a government with liberal leanings is more likely to keep Germany vigorous as it ages, and is what Ms Merkel says she wants.

[Igel]

Partners changed. But propably no change in Germanys GWOT Operations.

Few foreign policy shifts expected from new German coalition

Things are unlikely to change, however, as both Merkel's conservatives and Westerwelle's liberals support Germany's involvement in Afghanistan. Westerwelle himself has made it clear that he opposes widening the role of German troops deployed against the Taliban, a consistent irritant to US military planners who regularly called on the previous government to commit Bundeswehr troops to combat operations. It is therefore unlikely that the new coalition will cave in to increased calls from the US and other NATO partners to move German troops into more dangerous areas of Afghanistan.

Though I disagree with this statement:

"In fact the new government will find it marginally easier to pursue the policy of the previous government. The Afghanistan mission is widely unpopular within the German electorate and it was particularly hard for the Social Democrats with their pacifist traditions to defend Germany’s involvement. It should be easier for the CDU/CSU-FDP coalition government to sustain Germany’s engagement even if it remains a position which is unpopular at home and with a large part of their own electorate."

If the socialdemocrats move to an anti-war position it will be much harder to pursue the current GWOT policy. An anti-war stance by the SPD would give a large part of the german electorat a more serious voting alternative to end the mission than the far-left "Linke". Depending on how the war in Afghanistan develops, rising election chances of the SPD could force the new goverment to be even more reculant about the fighting deployments of the german troops, to put more pressure on NATO to end the mission or could even lead to a retreat of the german troops.
Then again this is a rather big "if" and I would hardly describe the SPD as "pacifist". In any case after that defeat the SPD will have its hands full with internal party politics for quite a time.

[Fuchs]

We don't even know the future SecDef or the coalition agreement.
That will likely take 4+ more weeks.

The only quite certain things are that Merkel will remain chancellor and Westerwelle will become minister for foreign affairs.
I don't know much about his foreign affairs attitude, though.


Jung will likely not remain SecDef, although his state party agitates in order to keep him in the cabinet in whatever position.

[davidbfpo]

Originally reported last week in Die Spiegel and picked up elsewhere (not sure if it appeared here):

The German government is trying to secure the release of a group of suspected German terrorists, arrested by Pakistani authorities while they were on their way to a jihadi colony in Waziristan Agency. A report in the German newspaper Speigel claimed that entire families from Germany, and Europe, were moving to the region to take part in jihad. In a recent jihadi video surfacing in Germany, a young speaker, who called himself “Abu Adam”, praises his stay in the mountains. “Doesn’t it appeal to you? We warmly invite you to join us!” Abu Adam said. The latest recruitment video from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) is 30 minutes in length and is addressed to “beloved” brothers and sisters back in Germany. The video was presented by, among others, Mounir Chouka, alias “Abu Adam”, who grew up in the western German city of Bonn. The video showed shacks erected against a backdrop of lush greenery and craggy rock formations, with women wearing blue burqas seen surrounded by children, the paper said. The video appeals seem to be finding fertile ground in Germany. German security officials believe the IMU is currently the largest and most active Islamic group recruiting in the country. But what was worrying them more was that the terrorists did not usually recruit women and children, as the IMU appeared doing. Villages: Families are moving to “mujahideen villages” in the Tribal Areas, which are used as bases for supporting the battle against the US troops and the Afghan army, Speigel claimed.

There is a current court trial in Germany of a terrorist group, called the Saurland plot to attack US targets, who were mainly Turks recruited by the Uzbek group (IMU) - German legend was that German-Turks were not attrcated by AQ ideology (3m of the 4.3m Muslims in Germany are Turks). Four defendants have made admissions and indicated there was a previously unknown group of German-Turks in Waziristan. Of note is that those recruited were encouraged to return home to launch attacks.

There are too many links on Google and some background is in: http://www.swp-berlin.org/common/get...?asset_id=5147

hHelps to put the context of German concerns over terrorism; which is little reported in the UK except headlines.

Fuchs - any reaction being closer to the scene?

davidbfpo

[Fuchs]

A guy was yesterday arrested in Germany for recruiting for AQ, but the whole terrorism thing isn't worth to be watched closely.
It's better to look at these kinds of things in retrospect, for the initial info is too often crappy.