I suspect LCol Malevich knows the answers to his questions
but I'll posit an answer anyway...I suggest:Originally Posted by Cavguy
The average Afghan is more afraid of the Talibs.They are not afraid of us because they know we're constrained by mores they think are dumb. Thus they'll pick on us as infidels and nice guys (who deserve to be fleeced in their view). As for revenge on the Talibs, they're willing to bide their time to get at them. What's a century or two...
We are not going to play a Viet Nam repeat because the rules have changed and 24 hour news cycles mitigate against such operations unless they are very low key; thus small and generally not terribly effective in the strategic sense.
There will be no -- or very, very few -- Afghan government inglorious basterds because the Afghan government does not necessarily want what the west thinks they ought to want. Far from it, I believe.
Consider also that if an Afghan soldier or police officer decides to beat a detained person to get information or just for the heck of it, he'll say something to the effect: "Please forgive me but I must beat you. It's my job, you understand." The beatee is likely to respond: "Please, go ahead. I understand. If God wills, I shall bear it manfully. I will bear no malice for this." Point there is that Pashtunwali is far more nuanced and complex than most westerners think. Also note that it is 'Pashtun...' Blood is thicker and so forth...
He states:Those are fair questions. I'm not sure whether the answers are pleasing or not but they really boil down to three rather immutable factors.We need to ask tough questions and stop making up the answers that please us.
We may be nice guys but we are still outsiders and flatlanders in hill country. Hill people are rather comfortable fighting each other but they will unite to fight outsiders. No one not from a bunch of Hill folks is likely to understand that fully.
We are trying to fight a war nicely for western domestic political reasons and our opponents do not have that quite significant constraint.
While I know some US Sergeants Major who could and would lead some Tigres Noir, I know many more who could not and would not (the ratio used to be about 20:80, I suspect it is even more skewed today) and I strongly doubt the US Army for one would allow that to happen -- again more due to US domestic politics than to the fact that there are only a few commanders who countenance such operations -- fewer still would entrust it to an NCO. So the second factor is our bureaucracy and dictated conformity. The US Army is still, unfortunately, mentally geared to fighting a peer competitor on the north German plain.
Short version: Outsiders who try to be nice and are doctrinaire are very unlikely to win against tough, unconstrained, xenophobic hillmen. They can get a marginally acceptable conclusion...
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