Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
but I'll posit an answer anyway...I suggest:

The average Afghan is more afraid of the Talibs.They are not afraid of us because they know we're constrained by mores they think are dumb. .....
Short version: Outsiders who try to be nice and are doctrinaire are very unlikely to win against tough, unconstrained, xenophobic hillmen. They can get a marginally acceptable conclusion...
Somehow I doubt that they consider the US army as being too nice or too constrained. They ARE less afraid of you than they are of the taliban because in the last year or two they have begun to think that the talibs are likely to win. Its true that they dont like infidels and outsiders in general. But, they are people and they see which side their bread is buttered. If the infidels had set up a better regime AND appeared determined to win, they would go along with that (especially if said "better regime" interferes little with their life and still provides security...less corruption, less extortion, more justice?). Also, lets not generalize TOO much. There is an urban population and slightly more developed population (in Kabul, Mazar, Herat) that would support a US supported regime over the taliban, but needs fig leaves of legitimacy, Islamic cover, less corruption, more service.
Having said all that, I think if the US actually decides to stick around, the nutcases who are increasingly dominant on the Pakistani side of the border (the arabs and uzbeks and punjabi taliban) will prove to be their own worst enemies. They will kill mercilessly and almost randomly, provide no real service, butt into everyone's private life and generally make Karzai look slightly better by comparison....but only slightly better.