cross posting from abumuqawama, here is my take on this offensive:
Based purely on public information about the terrain, the military operation and what we know of the insurgents, plus what the refugees are saying: the army has advanced a short distance into the Islamic emirate. They captured and then lost Hakeemullah's home village and have not managed to get it back yet. The taliban are willing to stand and fight in at least some locations and the army is very loath to close and fight hand to hand. The army is shelling and strafing villages and compounds with abandon. Those places are mostly empty, so casualties on all sides are low. My guess is that until now the army has suffered more casualties than the taliban. That is because the individual talib soldiers are better trained and motivated than the army. The army has a huge edge in firepower but that is not enough to dislodge them from where they are prepared to stand and fight. The army's hope is that massive use of artillery and airpower and a general show of force will convince the talibs to melt away rather than stand and fight. The taliban are willing to go along with that in many places, but are not willing to just withdraw from everywhere and allow the army to claim victory. At some point, the army will have to fight up close, at which point casualties will rise dramatically. To avoid such casualties the army is willing to go slow and hope that the good taliban can convince the evil taliban not to be stubborn and to let the army have its way (in return the talibs get to stay alive and concentrate on Afghanistan). But the bad taliban are not willing to follow the script. THEIR hope is that their campaign of terrorism will cause the people of Pakistan to press the army to stop. What I cannot figure out is what is the army's plan if they continue terrorism and DON'T melt away? Taking Waziristan ridge by ridge is not going to be a picnic. MAYBE the army is determined to do that if they have to, but I dont see convincing evidence of that as yet...I look forward to your report....